Artificial intelligence (AI) augurs changes in society at least as large as those of the industrial revolution. But much of the policy debate seems narrow – extrapolating current trends and asking how we might manage their rough edges. This essay instead explores how AI might be used to enable fundamentally different future worlds and how one such future might be enabled by AI algorithms with different goals and functions than those most common today.
We are a multi-disciplinary association of professionals dedicated to improving decision making under deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences, the probability distributions to place over the inputs to these models, which consequences to consider and their relative importance. Deep uncertainty often involves decisions that are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system.
Today’s decision makers face conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change. Traditional decision analysis relies on point and probabilistic predictions. But under conditions of deep uncertainty, predictions are often wrong, and relying on them can prove costly and dangerous. Fortunately, new methods and processes now exist to help decision makers identify and evaluate robust and adaptive strategies, thereby making sound decisions in the face of these challenges.
The Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty is a multi-disciplinary association of professionals working to improve processes, methods, and tools for decision making under deep uncertainty, facilitate their use in practice, and foster effective and responsible decision making in our rapidly changing world. While we share interests with other societies, ours is unique in its focus on developing, disseminating, and using these new approaches. Read more about us.
We invite policy makers, analysts, researchers, academics, and students to join us.