UNFCCC COP23 Side Event: ‘Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty’

  1. Title

Making robust investment decisions under deep uncertainty: a new approach to sustainable development planning in uncertain world

  1. Date and time

November 8th, 2017  10:30-12:00  @Japan Pavilion (COP23 Bonn Zone)

* To attend the event, it is necessary to register for COP23 to enter Bonn Zone. For information on the registration, please see the following link

  1. Outline

Traditionally, development planning and investment decisions have heavily counted on our ability to accurately forecast future state of economy and environment, in a belief that there should be “optimal” options under the forecast conditions.  However, the recent trend of trying to adapt development planning to climate change has led to a growing recognition that this is a formidable task.  We face deep uncertainty under changing climate and fast-changing world.

This session sheds light on a new school of thoughts and practices for sustainable development planning under deep uncertainty.  It will begin with a brief introduction to the concept of Decision Making under Uncertainty (DMU), followed by presentations on case studies of applying the new approach to investment decisions for climate resilient infrastructure.  An additional presentation and panel discussion will explore the potential application of the Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty concept to a broader set of issues involving uncertainty and complexity, such as long-term development planning for low-emission, climate resilient and sustainable futures, crisis management or conflict resolution.

  1. Participants

a) Presenters

– Alexis Bonnel, Sustainable Development Lead, Cross-Operations Department, Agence Française de Développement (AFD)

– Stéphane Hallegatte, Senior Economist, Climate Change Group, World Bank

– Daiju Narita, Associate Professor, Graduate Program on Environmental Sciences, University of Tokyo / Visiting Scholar, JICA Research Institute

b) Panelists

– Alexis Bonnel, Sustainable Development Lead, Cross-Operations Department, Agence Française de Développement (AFD)

– Cees van de Guchte, Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Deltares

– Stéphane Hallegatte, Senior Economist, Climate Change Group, World Bank

– Daiju Narita, Associate Professor, Graduate Program on Environmental Sciences, University of Tokyo / Visiting Scholar, JICA Research Institute

Note: Additional panelists are to be confirmed.

c) Moderator

– Ichiro Sato, Director, Office for Climate Change, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

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