Slate of Candidates and Proposed Rules Changes

You will find bellow the slate of candidates and proposed changes to the Rules and Processes. Please note that this list is preliminary and that the ballot will reflect the final slate of candidates.

Slate of Candidates

President

Leads, oversees, and coordinates across the Society’s numerous functions, monitors and evaluates the Society’s progress towards its goals, represents the Society to external audiences, and is a key point of contact and engagement.
Candidates: Robert Lempert

Robert Lempert

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

Our Society’s vision statement calls on us to act as a service organization that grows and sustains a community for knowledge sharing, training and collaboration for its members and as a disseminating organization that enables best practice for decision making and managing under deep uncertainty to become widely applied, understood and continually improved. Over the last two years, we’ve made good progress in pursuing these goals. I’d like a final term as President to complete the initial building of a strong, enduring organization committed to our vision. Over the last two years the Society has reached out to new communities with annual meetings in Oxford, UK and now Culver City, California; held community-building meet-ups at other conferences; and organized workshops and ad hoc committees to pursue special topics. We’ve extended our membership and revised our leadership structure. Our impact has grown as more organizations and jurisdictions now use DMDU approaches and Society members have produced a forthcoming book and a growing corpus of publications. Over the next two years, we should continue our outreach, expand our training, establish another keystone activity to complement our annual meeting, stabilize our funding, and establish benchmarks so we can monitor our progress.

Profile
I have had the honor of serving as President of our DMDU Society for the last three years. Over the last twenty years, I’ve been thrilled to be part of the group of people who have come together to advance the state of the art in decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty. I am a principal researcher at RAND and Director of RAND’s Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition, an innovation hub within RAND. My research has contributed to the development of robust decision making (RDM) methods and applications. I have helped train members of our community. I have applied DMDU methods in many policy areas, including climate change, energy, national security, health, and the private sector. I am a Fellow of the American Physical Society, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and have been a lead author for the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). My training, background, and career all contribute to my skills and passion for helping to make sense of deep uncertainty. I studied physics and political science and have spent my career in a research organization devoted to evidence-based policy analysis. My experiences have convinced me that our DMUU Society’s work is immensely important. Navigating these tumultuous times requires good analytics, which also acknowledges multiple perspectives and the limits on what we can know about the future. Our community has much to offer. A strong DMDU Society can help address these challenges.

Vice President

Serves in place of the President when necessary, supports the President in executing responsibilities, and may take lead responsibility in certain areas, as needed and agreed upon with the President.
Candidates: Jan Kwakkel, Julie Rozenberg

Jan Kwakkel

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I have been serving as vice president since the inception of the society and would like to continue in this role for another two years. My focus will be on organizing sessions and tracks at other conferences on behalf of the society. In addition, I hope to contribute to the training and education activities of the society.

Profile

Associate Professor in public policy analysis at Delft University of Technology
Member of the editorial board of Environmental Modelling & Software, and Futures and Foresight Science.
Lead developer of the exploratory modelling workbench, an open source toolkit for supporting decision making under deep uncertainty.

Julie Rozenberg

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

As Vice-President, I would first like to strengthen the cohesion of the Society by fostering collaborations between members and launching an internal discussion on goals we would like to achieve in the next two years. I suggest producing joint scientific papers on selected topics; and to start creating standard “products” (tools, trainings) that the Society can offer to non-academic members or external audiences. This would help my second objective, which is to grow the pool of scientists and consultants who understand deep uncertainty concepts and are able to provide high quality relevant decision support. To do that, I would disseminate the results of the “DMDU Checklist” Ad Hoc Committee (that I helped create and am a member of) and I would propose the creation of an Ad Hoc Committee on mainstreaming DMDU. This committee could determine the conditions required to put in place a technical support system for those who wish to apply existing DMDU guidelines but are afraid of their complexity, don’t know how to choose between the different methods, or need one-off advice to use some of the tools.

Profile

For the past eight years, through my PhD thesis and as an economist at the World Bank, I have contributed to both the body of research on DMDU and their application to complex development issues. I have used the tools developed by members and proposed improvements of these tools in academic papers. I have applied DMDU methods to new research questions, and for decision support in many developing countries (for example, I have supported the Sri Lanka cabinet before they decided to pass an order to protect wetlands in Colombo). Besides my technical work, I have been advocating for the use of DMDU methods with international organizations and World Bank donors, I have supported the creation of guidelines on infrastructure planning for resilience, and I have created an online training that explains the main concepts of DMDU on the World Bank Open Learning Campus (available publicly). I have been actively involved in the creation of the DMDU Society and I have stayed involved ever since. I was the main organizer of the annual workshop in 2016 in Washington DC, and I am also a member of the “DMDU Checklist” Ad Hoc Committee, which I suggested as a tool that can be used by institutions like the World Bank trying to increase the resilience of their activities to climate change. In my projects I have been a successful mediator between practitioners and academics, and I am hoping to further contribute to the mainstreaming of our methods and concepts.

Career Development Chair

Identifies and shares proposal, grant, employment, and professional development opportunities.
Candidates: Julie Rozenberg, Friday Ovbivoro

Julie Rozenberg

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

DMDU methods are best suited for complex problems involving pluri-disciplinary technical teams and practitioners. As such, it can be interesting for our members to take temporary or longer-term assignments in other organizations, to apply their methods to new problems or work with practitioners. I have worked in very heterogeneous teams, as a scientist and as a practitioner, and this allowed me to better understand constraints on both sides. As chair for career development I would help members of the Society identify such opportunities by reaching out to institutions and sharing offers or contacts with members. I would also gather and communicate information on research grants and consultancy opportunities, to support the development of our body of research and diversify the applications of our methods. Finally, I would create an ad-hoc committee on the mainstreaming of DMDU to encourage the broader consultancy community to consider deep uncertainty in their assignments. This committee could think of the conditions required to put in place a technical support system for those who wish to apply existing DMDU guidelines but are afraid of their complexity, don’t know how to choose between the different methods, or need one-off advice to use some of the tools.

Friday Ovbivoro

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I actually have interest for career development. I had attended several career development courses in my organization because of the passion I have towards career development.

With my experience as a civil servant with Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) for above eleven (11) years now, I believe I am capable to handle the position of chair, career development with DMDU Society.

With my academic qualifications and my work experience, I will be able to identify and share proposal, grant and professional development opportunities.

Profile

I am an officer of the rank of a Route Commander with the Federal Road Safety Corps, Nigeria. I am the Desk Officer National Vehicle Database with the mandate of ensuring online registration of vehicles to the FRSC Database, tracking/apprehending of traffic offenders, detecting/discovering of stolen vehicles, vehicle data uploads and data analysis for decision making.

I had my Bachelor’s degree in Forestry and Wildlife, and my Master’s degree in Agricultural Economics with a research work on climate change at the University of Benin and Uyo both in Nigeria respectively.

I have over eleven (11) years work experience with my organization and a good track records of hard work and integrity alongside numerous awards

and commendation letters based on commitment and innovations of ideas to the job.

I have proficiencies in the following computer packages as follows:

1. SPSS

2. STATA

3. Excel

4. Powerpoint

5. Word etc.

My hobbies are Driving, Swimming, Exercise, Reading.

Communications & Outreach Chair

Maintains periodic communication with members and external audiences. With Membership Chair, identifies and develops new modes of engaging with members and external audiences.

Candidates: Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I believe that the service provided by the DMDU Society is invaluable, as it concentrates energy and attention towards relevant deeply uncertain problems. As a simulation practitioner from the business field, I found insightful ideas on the DMDU literature, and a source of techniques to provide decision-making support when predict-then-act approaches may fail.

This is why I have been collaborating with the DMDU Society since 2017 when I volunteered to improve the membership roster and to upgrade the Society’s website, under the leadership of Judy Lawrence and Marjolijn Haasnoot. Since Marjolijn will not be able to remain in this position, I would be honored to continue her work on the following term.

Profile

I am currently a Lecturer at UNISINOS University, southern Brazil, where I teach Operational Research and Modeling to Production Engineering and Management undergraduate courses. I am also a member of the GMAP Research Group, where I work building decision support tools based on simulation modeling techniques, including Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics Simulation. I hold a Masters’ and Bachelor’s degree in Production Engineering from UNISINOS University.

My academic interests often gravitate towards the intersection between OR, Programming, and Management of Wicked Problems in Business. My undergraduate and master’s dissertations focused on wicked problems and decision under deep uncertainty, have received the Best Brazilian Dissertation in Production Engineering Prize from ABEPRO, in 2016 and 2018, respectively. Website: www.pedronl.com

Education & Training Chair

Identifies and develops education and training opportunities for the Society’s members, particularly for a new generation of decision makers and analysts.
Candidates: Steven Popper, David Johnson, Friday Ovbivoro

Steven Popper

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I have had the honor of serving as the Society’s first chair in this position; I would like to receive one more term to help bring the pioneering steps the leadership began in this area to fruition. Designing a DMDU Training Day prior to the annual meeting was a first step that I hope we can continue by putting in place other initiatives based on leadership initiatives and requests by Society members. My vision for DMDU education and training is to encompass both those who are currently students as well as those who are already practitioners and analysts seeking to broaden their professional expertise. But I believe the Society also needs to address issues of how to communicate core DMDU concepts and research findings to external audiences. This, too, can be viewed as a matter for training – not so much in how to use DMDU tools but to recognize the confounding presence of deep uncertainty and understand how to incorporate the insights and findings from DMDU analyses into operational and strategic decision making. This is the foundation I would like to put in place for the Society.

Profile

Work in DMDU began at RAND in the early 1990s and has continued through that channel and as one of the co-founders of Evolving Logic, Inc., the company founded to create tailored DMDU tools and applications. These efforts have included both the development of some of the earliest tools and methods but also performing and publicizing initial applications that provided proof-of-principle illustrations of core DMDU concepts.

Experience includes conducting DMDU analyses for governments around the world as well as private sector entities over two decades.

Developed external short courses and web materials for training and education in DMDU concepts and methods and taught DMDU courses as professor of science and technology policy in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Advised dissertations that furthered DMDU methods, applications and practice in PRGS.

Elected in 2016 as the founding chair for education and training of the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. Chaired organizing committee for 2018 DMDU annual meeting.

David Johnson 

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

Since I joined Purdue University in 2015, many faculty members I have interacted with have expressed great interest in learning more about DMDU; the concepts seem to make sense and “sell themselves” once explained, leading to some great collaborations. The fact that none of them had already incorporated some accounting for deep uncertainty into their own research designs suggests that we still have a long way to go in terms of exposure and reaching a broad audience. As a junior faculty member, I am motivated to develop short courses and case studies based around DMDU methods and applications, respectively, and would be glad to leverage Purdue’s facilities and video production professionals to produce online, open-source learning modules. I have benefited greatly from, as examples, Rob Lempert’s course on robust decision-making and the many helpful posts on the Water Programming research blog, and I am excited by the opportunity to produce new educational content to help grow the DMDU community by making it more accessible to get started. I have been planning to develop some related content in my current graduate course on Quantitative Analysis for Climate Change Adaptation, which already covers RDM, adaptation pathways, and dynamic adaptive policy pathways.

Profile

I obtained a PhD in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School in 2013, following a B.S. in mathematics from North Carolina State University and MASt in mathematics from University of Cambridge (UK), where I was a Gates Cambridge Scholar. Following the PhD, I worked at RAND Corporation as an associate mathematician; in 2015, I joined Purdue University as an assistant professor of industrial engineering and political science, reflecting my methodological interest in decision analysis and topical interest in environmental policy.

I am a modeler at heart. I have worked since 2009 with decision-makers in Louisiana as the lead developer of the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model and the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass emissions model for the U.S. Department of Energy; I am currently collaborating on a global gridded model of agricultural production and crop prices. Through my work in Louisiana, I have collaborated extensively with two of my mentors, Jordan Fischbach and Dave Groves. At the annual meeting, I will be presenting a MORDM analysis of nonstructural flood risk mitigation options in Louisiana; I am currently initiating projects (i) utilizing MORDM and direct policy search (DPS) to compare structural and nonstructural benefits, and (ii) integrating scenario discovery methods into direct policy search to assist with “strategy discovery.”

I currently teach a graduate course at Purdue, Quantitative Analysis for Climate Change Adaptation. Much of the class material is motivated by deep uncertainty, building up to a final module on DMDU, including readings and instruction on RDM, MORDM, and DAPP.

Friday Ovbivoro

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I would also prefer the position of chair, Education and Training. This is in line with one of the departments I actually worked for about four (4) years at Federal Road Safety Corps, Nigeria before I was posted to manage and head the National Vehicle Database office.

Based on my work experience and my academic qualifications, I believe that I am capable to handle the position of the chair, Education and Training with DMDU society.

Membership Chair

Maintains membership roster. Identifies gaps in membership and opportunities for growing the Society strategically.
Candidates: Sadie McEvoy, David Johnson

Sadie McEvoy

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

As a small society, the quality of our membership is central to the value of our meetings and our community. We have established a strong core of members; however, I believe that we could now benefit from greater diversity. Specifically, I would like to see diversity in four areas: 1) in the disciplines and sectors represented in our members and DMDU applications, 2) in the methods represented in the society, 3) in the geographic representation of our members, and 4) in the conditions under which DMDU methods are applied (e.g. developing countries). Diversity on these fronts would support the society’s strategic objectives to engage new sectors and locales, and to push the boundaries of science and practice to foster the co-production of knowledge across disciplines.

In the past three years, I have organized a number of “meet-ups” at international conferences, as a way to encourage new membership and to strengthen our existing community. I have also promoted diversity in the topics included in our annual meeting by organizing sessions and through my role on the steering committee for the 2018 meeting.

Profile

I am a researcher at Deltares and Delft University of Technology, specializing in water resources management and adaptation planning. Most recently, my research has focused on how to support stakeholder involvement in urban adaptation planning and decision making. Specifically, I have focused on the role of planning support tools in providing substantive content and process structure to co-design workshops. My interests lie in applying DMDU methods in collaborative planning processes and in integrating spatial implications of uncertainty into DMDU methods and their applications.

David Johnson

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

Related to my statement above on the education and learning position, I am generally very interested in increasing the membership of the society and making DMDU approaches more accessible to researchers in other fields. As part of writing a review of contemporary decision-support frameworks, I think that I have gained a broad overview of the field beyond the exposure I received as a graduate student and later as a full-time researcher at RAND Corporation. I would love to expand the reach of the society into new disciplines and application domains.

 

Rules & Processes Chair

Establishes and documents rules and processes necessary for smooth, transparent, and consistent functioning year-to-year, and is in charge of the process of amending and changing the rules and processes.

Candidates: Rebecca Smith

Rebecca Smith

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

I believe the mission of the society is important and want to contribute to its success by continuing to serve on the leadership team.

Profile

I have been serving as the Rules and Processes Chair for the last two years. In that time I have helped to ground Leadership Team discussions in the Society’s statutes, addressed rule change suggestions from membership, and translated Leadership Team discussions into practical rule revisions. In my position at the Bureau of Reclamation I am responsible for overseeing multiple projects, ensuring proper procedures and paperwork are in place to support those activities, and communicating their progress; the coordination and attention to detail and guidelines inherent in these tasks is valuable experience to successfully perform the role of Rules and Processes Chair. Finally, I have held positions on multiple community service committees over the past 10 years.

Administrator

Schedules meetings, maintains records of meetings, sets agendas, and shares meeting outcomes with Society members.
Candidates: Andrea Golay

Andrea Golay

Why Would you Like to Apply for this position?

The Administrator position requires a proactive approach, great organizational skills, an aptitude for problem-solving, and close coordination with the President and each of the Committee chairs. Acting as Administrator over the past three years, I have gained experience with each of these requirements as they particularly relate to our growing Society, and have become familiar with the intricacies of the Administrator’s role. I find fulfillment in supporting the DMDU Society’s important work and hope to continue my contribution in a follow-on two year term as the Society grows and progresses as an organization.

Profile

Andrea Golay is a Technical Analyst at the RAND Corporation where she contributes to policy research through modeling and simulation, operations research methods, and project management assistance. Her research interests include emerging technology, decision sciences, and military logistics.

Andrea has supported the DMDU Society in an administrative capacity for over four years, first assisting with the organization of the 2014 DMDU meeting, and then supporting the burgeoning Society by developing key online content, maintaining membership information, organizing planning committee meetings, and performing other miscellaneous tasks such as designing the Society logo and suite of social media graphics. Over the past two years she has served in the Society’s elected Administrator role coordinating and maintaining records of monthly international meetings, closely supporting the DMDU President and Committee Chairs, updating online content, and playing a critical role in the coordination and planning of the 2018 DMDU Annual Meeting.

Proposed Rules Changes

DMDU Society Revised Statues

Summary of Rules and Processes Amendments

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