DMDU Meet Up at the Scenarios Forum

The DMDU community organized a DMDU Meetup at the Scenarios Forum, in Denver (https://www.scenariosforum2019.com/). The event was organized by the International Committee on New Integrated Climate change assessment Scenarios (ICONICS) and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. If you are planning to attend DMDU-related conferences and are able…

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IEEE International Workshop on Resilience Engineering (IWRE) – Call for Papers

Website: https://paris.utdallas.edu/iwre19/ The workshop will be co-located with the 2019 IEEE International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability, and Security (https://qrs19.techconf.org/), in Sofia, Bulgaria, July 22-26, 2019. Resilience is rapidly spreading throughout domains traditionally studied by quality, reliability, and security researchers. It is widely recognized that progressively higher levels of resilience…

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Bezos World Or Levelers: Can We Choose Our Scenario?

Artificial intelligence (AI) augurs changes in society at least as large as those of the industrial revolution.  But much of the policy debate seems narrow – extrapolating current trends and asking how we might manage their rough edges.  This essay instead explores how AI might be used to enable fundamentally different future worlds and how one such future might be enabled by AI algorithms with different goals and functions than those most common today.

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Climate Change Requires Long-Term Action. How Can Policymakers Deal with Uncertainty When Planning Far Ahead?

By Ichiro Sato, World Resources Institute The Paris Agreement invites countries to integrate sustainability and climate action into their broader economic and social policies by creating “mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” (LTS) by 2020. Only 10 countries have submitted their strategies to date, with one of the…

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New Zealand guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change has now DMDU methods as its core

On 15 December the New Zealand Government issued revised national Guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change for decision makers which has DMDU methods at its core. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning is used to address uncertainties around hazards and sea-level rise beyond mid-century when the uncertainty bands widen. The framework of…

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Getting to grips with uncertainty across multiple scales at the 5th Annual Workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Today’s decision makers face conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change. Decisions on issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, defense spending or avoiding the collapse of financial systems are all plagued by diverse and complex uncertainties. So how do we respond to this world of increasing uncertainty?…

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Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making

Reposted from https://i2insights.org/2017/08/15/managing-deep-uncertainty/ How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems…

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