Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making

Reposted from https://i2insights.org/2017/08/15/managing-deep-uncertainty/ How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems…

read more

Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

By Robert Lempert and Marjolijn Haasnoot In columnist Bret Stephens’ first blog post for the New York Times, published at the end of April, he highlights the uncertainty surrounding climate change, warns against overconfidence, and issues an invitation to dialogue. We agree that significant uncertainty exists regarding the future impacts…

read more

A practical approach to resilience

by Karin de Bruijn and Marjolein Mens This blog is reposted from https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/a-practical-approach-to-resilience/ Societies face increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making to cope with extreme weather events. Therefore oversimplified risk approaches should evolve to much richer resilience strategies. Yet, resilience is often more a policy buzzword or topic for…

read more