Climate Change Requires Long-Term Action. How Can Policymakers Deal with Uncertainty When Planning Far Ahead?

By Ichiro Sato, World Resources Institute The Paris Agreement invites countries to integrate sustainability and climate action into their broader economic and social policies by creating “mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” (LTS) by 2020. Only 10 countries have submitted their strategies to date, with one of the…

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New Zealand guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change has now DMDU methods as its core

On 15 December the New Zealand Government issued revised national Guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change for decision makers which has DMDU methods at its core. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning is used to address uncertainties around hazards and sea-level rise beyond mid-century when the uncertainty bands widen. The framework of…

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Getting to grips with uncertainty across multiple scales at the 5th Annual Workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Today’s decision makers face conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change. Decisions on issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, defense spending or avoiding the collapse of financial systems are all plagued by diverse and complex uncertainties. So how do we respond to this world of increasing uncertainty?…

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Managing deep uncertainty: Exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making

Reposted from https://i2insights.org/2017/08/15/managing-deep-uncertainty/ How can decision making on complex systems come to grips with irreducible, or deep, uncertainty? Such uncertainty has three sources: Intrinsic limits to predictability in complex systems. A variety of stakeholders with different perspectives on what the system is and what problem needs to be solved. Complex systems…

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Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change: A Response, and an Invitation, to Bret Stephens

By Robert Lempert and Marjolijn Haasnoot In columnist Bret Stephens’ first blog post for the New York Times, published at the end of April, he highlights the uncertainty surrounding climate change, warns against overconfidence, and issues an invitation to dialogue. We agree that significant uncertainty exists regarding the future impacts…

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A practical approach to resilience

by Karin de Bruijn and Marjolein Mens This blog is reposted from https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/a-practical-approach-to-resilience/ Societies face increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making to cope with extreme weather events. Therefore oversimplified risk approaches should evolve to much richer resilience strategies. Yet, resilience is often more a policy buzzword or topic for…

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