Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools (2019)

James Derbyshire. “Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools.” Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space (22 September, 2019). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0308518X19877885 Abstract In many domains, including geography, there can be the implicit assumption that improved data analysis and statistical modelling must lead to improved policymaking,…

read more

Transportation infrastructures in a low carbon world: An evaluation of investment needs and their determinants (2019)

Fisch-Romito, Vivien, and Céline Guivarch. “Transportation Infrastructures in a Low Carbon World: An Evaluation of Investment Needs and Their Determinants.” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 72 (July 1, 2019): 203–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.04.014.Transportation infrastructures will either lock in transportation patterns in high CO2 modes or foster low-carbon pathways. At the…

read more

Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning (2019)

Fletcher, S., Lickley, M., & Strzepek, K. (2019). Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning. Nature Communications, 10(1), 1782. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09677-x Water resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime…

read more

Testing the potential of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) with Colorado water managers (2019)

Rebecca Smith, Joseph Kasprzyk, Lisa Dilling, Testing the potential of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) with Colorado water managers, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 117, 2019, Pages 149-163, ISSN 1364-8152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.011. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) generate quantitative information about performance relationships between a system’s potentially conflicting objectives (termed tradeoffs). Research applications have suggested…

read more

Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action (2019)

J. R. Lamontagne, P. M. Reed, G. Marangoni, K. Keller, and G. G. Garner. Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action. Nature Climate Change, page 1, March 2019. ISSN 1758-6798. doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8. URL https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0426-8. Disentangling the relative importance of climate change abatement policies from the human–Earth…

read more

Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways (2019)

Haasnoot, M., van Aalst, M., Rozenberg, J., Dominique, K., Matthews, J., Bouwer, L. M., … Poff, N. L. (2019). Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6 Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is…

read more

Dynamically Optimizing the Strategic Plan of Mining Complexes (2019)

Del Castillo, M. F., & Dimitrakopoulos, R. (2019). Dynamically optimizing the strategic plan of mining complexes under supply uncertainty. Resources Policy, 60, 83-93. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420718302307 Abstract Mining complexes are comprised of multiple mines and mineral processing streams, each governed by internal (mineral deposit, operation) and external (commodity prices) uncertainties, and must be optimized jointly…

read more

Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach (2019)

Haer,T. Botzen, W.J.W, Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2019) Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach. Environmental Research Letters 14 044022 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0770 Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of…

read more

Open Access DMDU Book Released!

The Open Access Book “Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice” has been released by Springer (Click here to download). This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches…

read more

Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)

Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…

read more