Dear All, The article ” Financial markets and Keynes’s long-term expectations” is published in the Special Issue: F. H. Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit and J. M. Keynes’ Treatise on Probability after 100 years, Cambridge Journal of Economics Cambridge Journal of Economics, Volume 45, Issue 5, September 2021, Pages 1047–1067,…
Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach
Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen,Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach,Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 144, 2021, 105134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105134. Abstract: This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable…
DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY)
Warren Walker, Delft University of Technology DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY) Warren Walker (Delft University of Technology) and Vincent Marchau (Radboud University) In November, 2020, McKinsey & Co. published an article entitled “When nothing is normal: Managing in extreme uncertainty”[1]. It makes many recommendations for private companies that DMDU’ers have been…
Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (2021)
Jafino, B. A., Kwakkel, J., Klijn, F., Dung, N. V., van Delden, H., Haasnoot, M., & Sutanudjaja, E. (2021). Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001939. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001939 Abstract: The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized….
Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice (2021)
Full citation: Jafino, B.A., Hallegatte, S. & Rozenberg, J. Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2021). URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01030-9 Abstract: As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to…
Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice (2021)
Bonjean Stanton, M.C., Roelich, K., 2021. Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 171, 120939. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120939 AbstractDeep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to…
Reopening California: Seeking Robust, Non-Dominated COVID-19 Exit Strategies
Lima, Pedro Nascimento de, Robert J. Lempert, Raffaele Vardavas, Lawrence Baker, Jeanne S. Ringel, Carolyn M. Rutter, Jonathan Ozik, and Nicholson Collier DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259166 Abstract:Amid global scarcity of COVID-19 vaccines and the threat of new variant strains, California and other jurisdictions face the question of when and how to implement…
Approval and plurality voting with uncertainty: Info-gap analysis of robustness
Ben-Haim, Y. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-021-00881-2 Abstract:Voting algorithms are used to choose candidates by an electorate. However, voter participation is variable and uncertain, and projections from polls or past elections are uncertain because voter preferences may change. Furthermore, electoral victory margins are often slim. Variable voter participation or preferences, and slim margins…
Engaging People on Climate Change: The Role of Emotional Responses
Wong-Parodi G., Feygina I. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17524032.2020.1871051 Abstract:Overcoming climate change skepticism and disengagement is a pressing challenge. Evidence suggests that reactions to climate science and proposed solutions are strongly driven by emotion. This paper explores whether negative emotional responses to learning about climate impacts support recognition of the reality and risks…
Cyber resilience of autonomous mobility systems: cyber-attacks and resilience-enhancing strategies
Zou, B., Choobchian, P. & Rozenberg, J. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-021-00230-w Abstract: The increasing cyber connectivity of vehicles and between vehicles and infrastructure will drastically reshape mobility in the coming decades. While the advent of connected mobility is expected to benefit travelers and the society by smoothing traffic, improving rider convenience, and…