Adaptive planning and adaptive pathways

By Marjolijn Haasnoot The adaptation pathways approach to decision making under deep uncertainty emerged almost 15 years ago. The approach explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways method provides stepwise guidance to support the…

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Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? (2020)

Kwakkel, JH. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e638. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.638 Abstract:Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in…

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2020 DMDU Webinar Series

In this nine-episode webinar series, the Tecnologico de Monterrey hosts researchers sharing their expertise in DMDU methods, tools, and applications ranging from city planning and decarbonization to poverty reduction and autonomous vehicles. The final webinar of the series explores deep uncertainty in the context of COVID19. Recordings of these sessions…

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Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)

Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…

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Seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair

We are soliciting suggestions and seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair.  Our DMDU Society is governed by an eight-member, volunteer leadership team elected by its membership.  The leadership team’s Funding and Career Development position is currently vacant.  According to our Rules and Processes, the leadership team…

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Uncertainty at AGU

Several sessions at AGU 2017 conference will adress (hydrologic) uncertainty. An overview is given here: http://aguhu.blogspot.nl/2017/07/which-session-to-submit-to-hydrologic.html DMDU draws on a range of approaches to deal with uncertainty. Methods for living with (deep) uncertainty is a key focus, but not all aspects of a situation are deeply uncertain. Even if we…

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Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?

by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft),  Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….

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