Getting to grips with uncertainty across multiple scales at the 5th Annual Workshop on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Today’s decision makers face conditions of fast-paced, transformative, and often surprising change. Decisions on issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, defense spending or avoiding the collapse of financial systems are all plagued by diverse and complex uncertainties. So how do we respond to this world of increasing uncertainty?…

read more

Uncertainty at AGU

Several sessions at AGU 2017 conference will adress (hydrologic) uncertainty. An overview is given here: http://aguhu.blogspot.nl/2017/07/which-session-to-submit-to-hydrologic.html DMDU draws on a range of approaches to deal with uncertainty. Methods for living with (deep) uncertainty is a key focus, but not all aspects of a situation are deeply uncertain. Even if we…

read more

Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?

by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft),  Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….

read more

Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…

read more

Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)

Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…

read more

Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)

Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…

read more

The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)

Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016.  The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…

read more

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale (2015)

Girard, C., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rinaudo, J.-D., Page, C., and Caballero, Y., 2015, Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale, Global Environmental Change 34,132-146 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002   The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a…

read more