Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions (2024)

Paredes-Vergara M, Palma-Behnke R, Haas J. Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2024;192:114233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114233. Sustainable energy transitions (SET) are complex processes spanning over decades and subject to deep uncertainty from a variety of sources, such as climate change, technology development, and…

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Types of Technological Innovation in the Face of Uncertainty (2022)

Chiffi, D., Moroni, S. & Zanetti, L. (2022). Types of Technological Innovation in the Face of Uncertainty. Philosophy & Technology 35, 94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-022-00587-3 Technological innovation is almost always investigated from an economic perspective; with few exceptions, the specific technological and social nature of innovation is often ignored. We argue that a…

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Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk (2022)

Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., de Ruiter, M., and Aerts, J.: Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk. iScience Volume 25, Issue 10, 2022, 105219, ISSN 2589-0042, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105219. Climate change impacts are increasingly complex owing to compounding, interacting, and cascading risks across sectors. However,  approaches…

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Senior Economist – World Bank

The World Bank is hiring a Senior Economist in the Latin America and Caribbean team, to lead analytical thinking and innovation in the area of environment and natural resource economics. This will include remaining current on the latest developments in the field and translating the latest knowledge into operationally relevant…

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Trade-off informed adaptive and robust real options water resources planning

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.104117 Planning water resource systems is challenged primarily by two realities. First, uncertainty is inherent in the predictions of future supplies and demands due for example to hydrological variability and climate change. To build societal resilience water planners should seek to enhance the adaptability and robustness of water resource system…

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Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways (2022)

E. A. Moallemi, L. Gao, S. Eker, B. Bryan, Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways. Global Sustainability 5, 1-17 (2022). url: https://t.co/2cGUyA0GbK Non-technical summary: Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs)….

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The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation (2021)

The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation Jonathan Metzger,Annika Carlsson Kanyama,Per Wikman-Svahn,Karin Mossberg Sonnek,Christoffer Carstens,Misse Wester &Christoffer Wedebrand https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1523908X.2021.1893160?src= ABSTRACT Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate…

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Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee (2021)

van ‘t Klooster, S.A. & Veenman, S.A. (2021). Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee. Futures, vol. 127. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cWGW3jdJdMQU Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped…

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Adaptive planning and adaptive pathways

By Marjolijn Haasnoot The adaptation pathways approach to decision making under deep uncertainty emerged almost 15 years ago. The approach explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways method provides stepwise guidance to support the…

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