The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)

Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016.  The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…

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Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale (2015)

Girard, C., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rinaudo, J.-D., Page, C., and Caballero, Y., 2015, Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale, Global Environmental Change 34,132-146 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002   The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a…

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Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning (2016)

Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk and Kate Giglio. Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html. Also available in print form. Robust decision making stress-tests plans over a wide…

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Unprecedented drought and decision-making (2015)

Borgomeo, E., G. Pflug, J. W. Hall, and S. Hochrainer-Stigler (2015), Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8927–8948, doi:10.1002/2015WR017324.   Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in…

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Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise (2015)

Michael Smithson and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise, Risk Analysis,  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12397/pdf Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of…

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