- Lawrence, J., M. Haasnoot (2016) What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 68, February 2017, Pages 47-57, ISSN 1462-9011, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.12.003.
Implementing climate-resilient pathways in conditions of uncertainty and change is a serious challenge. Approaches have been developed for this type of problem, one of which, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach (DAPP), has been applied in practice in a limited number of circumstances, mainly for large infrastructure projects and at national scales. To better understand what it takes to catalyse uptake of DAPP to better address uncertainty and change than typical static planning approaches, we examined the role of a simulation game facilitated by a knowledge broker, in a real-life local decision setting on flood risk management in New Zealand. Four intervention phases over four years are described and their influence analysed: 1) creating interest through framing the science, 2) increasing awareness using the Game, 3) experimenting with DAPP, and 4) uptake of DAPP. We found that a knowledge broker introducing new framing of changing risk profiles, facilitating use of the Game and the DAPP approach in a real-life decision making setting, with contextual support from events and (inter)national reports, catalysed the uptake of adaptive pathways planning. We identified enabling requirements necessary for embedding adaptive planning into decision-making practice for addressing uncertainty and change.
Keywords: Decision making; Deep uncertainty; Adaptation pathways; Climate change adaptation; Serious game; Flood risk management
What it took to catalyse uptake of dynamic adaptive pathways planning to address climate change uncertainty (2016)
Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world (2016)
Bhave, A. G., Conway, D., Dessai, S., & Stainforth, D. A. (2016). Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world. Climate Risk Management, 14, 1-10. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300626
Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for supporting adaptation decision making, yet case study applications in developing countries are rare. This review paper examines the potential to expand the geographical and sectoral foci of RDM as part of the repertoire of approaches to support adaptation. We review adaptation decision problems hitherto relatively unexplored, for which RDM approaches may have value. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, suggest potential sectors for application and comment on future directions. We identify that data requirements, lack of examples of RDM in actual decision-making, limited applicability for surprise events, and resource constraints are likely to constrain successful application of RDM approaches in developing countries. We discuss opportunities for RDM approaches to address decision problems associated with urban socio-environmental and water-energy-food nexus issues, forest resources management, disaster risk management and conservation management issues. We examine potential entry points for RDM approaches through Environmental Impact Assessments and Strategic Environmental Assessments, which are relatively well established in decision making processes in many developing countries. We conclude that despite some barriers, and with modification, RDM approaches show potential for wider application in developing country contexts.
A critical review of decision support systems for water treatment: Making the case for incorporating climate change and climate extremes (2016)
Raseman, WJ; Kasprzyk, JR; Rosario-Ortiz, FL; Stewart, JR; Livneh, B “A critical review of decision support systems for water treatment: Making the case for incorporating climate change and climate extremes” Environmental Science: Water Research and Technology, In Press. doi:/10.1039/C6EW00121A
Abstract: Water treatment plants (WTPs) are tasked with providing safe potable water to consumers. However, WTPs face numerous challenges, including changes in source water quality and quantity, financial challenges related to operations and upgrades, and stringent water quality regulations. These aforementioned challenges may be exacerbated by climate change in the form of long-term climatic perturbations and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. To help WTPs overcome these issues, decision support systems (DSSs), which are used to aid and enhance the quality and consistency of decision-making, have been developed. This paper reviews the scientific literature on the development and application of DSSs for water treatment, including physically-based models, statistical models, and artificial intelligence techniques, and suggests future directions in the field. We first set the context of how water quality is impacted by climate change and extreme weather events. We then provide a comprehensive review of DSSs and conclude by offering a series of recommendations for future DSS efforts for WTPs, suggesting that these tools should (1) more accurately reflect the practical needs of WTPs, (2) represent the tradeoffs between the multiple competing objectives inherent to water treatment, (3) explicitly handle uncertainty to better inform decision makers, (4) incorporate nonstationarity, especially with regard to extreme weather events and climate change for long-term planning, and (5) use standardized terminology to accelerate the dissemination of knowledge in the field.
Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways (2016)
Zeff, H.B., Herman, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways.”, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR018771.
A considerable fraction of urban water supply capacity serves primarily as a hedge against drought. Water utilities can reduce their dependence on firm capacity and forestall the development of new supplies using short-term drought management actions, such as conservation and transfers. Nevertheless, new supplies will often be needed, especially as demands rise due to population growth and economic development. Planning decisions regarding when and how to integrate new supply projects are fundamentally shaped by the way in which short-term adaptive drought management strategies are employed. To date, the challenges posed by long-term infrastructure sequencing and adaptive short-term drought management are treated independently, neglecting important feedbacks between planning and management actions. This work contributes a risk-based framework that uses continuously updating risk-of-failure (ROF) triggers to capture the feedbacks between short term drought management actions (e.g., conservation and water transfers) and the selection and sequencing of a set of regional supply infrastructure options over the long term. Probabilistic regional water supply pathways are discovered for four water utilities in the ‘Research Triangle’ region of North Carolina. Furthermore, this study distinguishes the status-quo planning path of independent action (encompassing utility-specific conservation and new supply infrastructure only) from two cooperative formulations: ‘weak’ cooperation, which combines utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers, and ‘strong’ cooperation, which also includes jointly developed regional infrastructure to support transfers. Results suggest that strong cooperation aids utilities in meeting their individual objectives at substantially lower costs and with less overall development. These benefits demonstrate how an adaptive, rule-based decision framework can coordinate integrated solutions that would not be identified using more traditional optimization methods.
Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments (2016)
Herman, J., Zeff, H., Lamontagne, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 11, 2016.
Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which existing or planned policies may fail to meet stakeholder objectives. Such assessments depend on the development of plausible future scenarios, which, in the case of drought management, requires sampling or generating a broad ensemble of reservoir inflows which extends beyond the historical record. This work adapts synthetic streamflow generation to allow adjustable frequency of low-flow periods. The approach facilitates robustness assessments of urban water supply systems for scenarios in which impactful historical droughts become more frequent. Specifically, the contributed streamflow generation procedure allows the user to specify parameters n, p such that events with observed weekly non-exceedance frequency p appear in the synthetic scenario with approximate frequency np (i.e., the pth percentile flow occurs n times more frequently). Additionally, the generator preserves the historical autocorrelation of streamflow and its seasonality, as well as approximate multi-site correlation. Using model simulations from recent work in multi-objective urban drought portfolio planning in North Carolina, a region whose water supply faces both climate and population pressures, we illustrate the decision-relevant consequences caused by raising the frequency of low flows associated with the 2007-2008 drought. This method explores system performance under increased drought frequency based on stakeholder experience prior to reconciling these findings with climate model projections, and thus can be used to support bottom-up robustness methods in water systems planning.
Manheim, David, Margaret Chamberlin, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas and Melinda Moore. Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers’ Needs. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1576.html.
This report describes decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious disease prevention, detection, and response and aligns these tools with real-world policy questions that the tools can help address. The intended audience includes technical experts — for example, modelers and subject-matter experts — and the policymakers that those experts can support.
Understanding the available models and other tools is critical for understanding uncertainties and considering how to address them. This report intends to move that discussion forward in the realm of infectious diseases.
by Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura Bonzanigo
Word clouds are made with: http://www.wordle.net/create
Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty (2016)
Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker (2016) Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software 86 (2016) 168-183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017
A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for
which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance.
The World Bank will host the 2016 DMDU workshop in Washington DC, on November 16 and 17, 2016, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for November 15th, 2016. There is still place for the training, but it is running out fast. Please confirm here by October 15 if you have not done that already, to make sure we save you a spot! The annual meeting is fully booked. Please let us know if you will not come so there will be place for others to attend. Download the programme. Continue reading
•We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty.
•Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios.
•The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant.
•Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria.
•Our methods can better inform efforts to improve model outputs under deep uncertainty.