Tag Archives: Annual Meeting

2017 annual meeting: DMDU across mulitiple scales. Submit an abstract and register

Please save the date for the 2017 DMDU meeting. The meeting will be hosted by the Oxford Martin School in Oxford, UK, on 14-15 November 2017, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for 13 November 2017. For more information on the workshop, visit the website. The 2017 annual meeting theme is dealing with deep uncertainty in decision making across multiple scales. The workshop will tackle the challenges of decision making at many different scales, from the perspective of deep uncertainty. The theme of multiple scales embraces spatial scales, temporal scales and scales of governance.

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Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence

by Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert

At the conclusion of the DMDU workshop at Deltares, The Netherlands in 2015, we identified political scientists as an additional group that could inform the discussions at the next annual workshop. Accordingly, we designed a problem session at the annual workshop at the World Bank in 2016, entitled: Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence. Whether or not decision makers consider the implications of their decisions for future generations under changing conditions depends on a range of institutional, political, behavioural and ethical factors. One of these is the extent to which policy decisions are influenced by short-termism or presentist bias. This in turn, depends on the political context within which decisions are made.

Tools developed for decision making under conditions of uncertainty and change, need to be ‘fit’ for the changing environment and for the political context, to enable policies to persist over time and adapt to changing conditions. Or the political context could be changed using commitment devices. Thus, for successful implementation of policies that can persist over the long term or be adjusted as the world changes, we need to understand the drivers that motivate the actors.

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