Marcello Basili & Antonio Nicita, 2020. “The Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak, the risk of institutional failures and a coherent health policy,” Department of Economics University of Siena 838, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
The new coronavirus CoVid-19 (SARS-Cov-2) pandemic outbreak all around theWorld puts in evidence how institutional failures may end up in a catastrophic event. The precautionary principle (PP) has been proposed as the proper guide for the decision-making criteria to be adopted in the face of the new catastrophic risks that have arisen in the decades of this century. Unfortunately the political institutions at the national and supranational level, such as the European Union Commission, seem having neglected it opening the scenario of a lethal global pandemic that could cause millions of deaths. According to scientists and health authorities human beings are facing the high probable nightmare of a very aggressive and mortal pandemic, worst than the Spanish flu (1918-1919) the most famous recombined avian flu killed millions, without targeted therapeutics for treatment and vaccines. The paper sets a robust and precautionary formal decision rule that could be considered a guide for policymakers and illustrates its use in the case of likely second wave of SARS-COV-2 in Europe.