Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Paul K. Davis and Steven W. Popper (2019), “Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand,” Journal of Policy and Complex Systems, 2(5), 181-201. https://view.joomag.com/journal-on-policy-complex-systems-volume-5-number-2-fall-2019/0729098001579703740/p182?short= Abstract: Good policy analysis needs to improve in routinely addressing not only uncertainty about model inputs to the model used,…

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Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making

Robert Lempert, James Syme, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, Garett Ballard-Rosa, Kacey Lizon, Ifeanyi Edochie. Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making (2020) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1727766 Problem, research strategy, and findings: Prediction-based approaches, the heart of current transportation planning practice, are inadequate…

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Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty (2020)

Jonathan D. Herman Julianne D. Quinn Scott Steinschneider Matteo Giuliani Sarah Fletcher. Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty. Water Resources Management (2020) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025502 Abstract Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or…

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Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports (2020)

Janzwood, S. Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x#citeas> Abstract The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups,…

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Bridging Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) to improve strategic planning for sustainable development (2020)

Shirin Malekpour, Warren E. Walker, Fjalar J. de Haan, Niki Frantzeskaki, Vincent A.W.J. Marchau, Bridging Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) to improve strategic planning for sustainable development, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 107, 2020, Pages 158-167. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901120302008 Sustainable development is a long-term endeavour involving deep…

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Research Fellow in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

The School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds invites applications for a postdoctoral research fellow in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty You will participate in a six-year EPSRC-funded research project, Multi-Actor Adaptive Decision Making (MAADM). MAADM aims to understand how to make better decisions to transform infrastructure…

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Robust Decision Making and Epoch-Era Analysis: A comparison of two model-based approaches for decision making under uncertainty (2020)

Moallemi, E.A., El Sawah, S., and Ryan, M.J. (2020) Robust Decision Making and Epoch-Era Analysis: A comparison of two model-based approaches for decision making under uncertainty. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119797 ABSTRACT: Several model-based frameworks have been introduced in support of robust decision-making. While they agree on a…

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Structuring and evaluating decision support processes to enhance the robustness of complex human-natural systems (2020)

Moallemi, E.A., Zare, F., Reed, P.M., Elsawah, S., Ryan, M.J., and Bryan, B.A. (2020) Structuring and evaluating decision support processes to enhance the robustness of complex human–natural systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 123, 1045-51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104551 ABSTRACT: Decision-making in the context of complex human–natural systems requires a transition towards robust model-based inferences…

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Towards an alternative approach in finance to climate risks: taking uncertainties fully into account (2019)

Depoues, V., V.Bouchet, M.Cardona, M.Nicol. (2019). “For another approach to climate risk in finance, taking uncertainties fully into account”. Climate Report, I4CE. URL: https://www.i4ce.org/download/for-another-approach-to-climate-risk-in-finance-taking-uncertainties-fully-into-account/ It is no easy task to take climate risks – transition risks and physical risks – into account in financial management practices. As this note shows…

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Cornell Reed Group Post Doctoral Positions

I have several post-doctoral research positions within my group here at Cornell and would appreciate if you would share the summary of positions below. For all of these openings, strong computational and mathematical skills are essential, with preference for programming experience in Python, Matlab, and C/C++. Successful candidates are expected…

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