Cite: Kahagalage, S. D., Turan, H. H., Elsawah, S., & Gary, M. S. (2024). Exploratory modelling and analysis to support decision-making under deep uncertainty: A case study from defence resource planning and asset management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 200, 123150. url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523008351?via%3Dihub Abstract Emerging approaches and tools in the literature for…
Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions (2024)
Paredes-Vergara M, Palma-Behnke R, Haas J. Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2024;192:114233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.114233. Sustainable energy transitions (SET) are complex processes spanning over decades and subject to deep uncertainty from a variety of sources, such as climate change, technology development, and…
Types of Technological Innovation in the Face of Uncertainty (2022)
Chiffi, D., Moroni, S. & Zanetti, L. (2022). Types of Technological Innovation in the Face of Uncertainty. Philosophy & Technology 35, 94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-022-00587-3 Technological innovation is almost always investigated from an economic perspective; with few exceptions, the specific technological and social nature of innovation is often ignored. We argue that a…
Application of Multiobjective Optimization to Provide Operational Guidance for Allocating Supply among Multiple Sources
Wang, H., Wanakule, N., Asefa, T., Erkyihun S., Basdekas L., and Hayslett, R. 2023, Application of Multi-Objective Optimization for multiple Supply resources allocation, Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management. https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5827 This study is motivated by multipleobjective optimization in short-term water management for a regional water utility. Although an increasing application…
A Risk-Based Framework to Evaluate Infrastructure Investment Options for a Water Supply System
Wang, H., Wanakule, N., Asefa, T. and Erkyihun, S, 2022, A risk-based framework to evaluate infrastructure investment option for a water supply system, Journal of Environmental Engineering, November 2022 | Volume 148, Issue 11, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0002069 Increasing water demand due to socio-economic development often requires structure-level interventions, e.g., infrastructure expansion…
Self-Adaptive Multi-Objective Climate Policies Align Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies (2022)
Carlino, A., Tavoni, M., & Castelletti, A. (2022). Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies. Earth’s Future, 10, e2022EF002767. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002767 Intensifying climate change impacts can divert the economic resources away from emission reduction toward adaptation to reduce rising damages, jeopardizing temperature stabilization within safe levels. Indeed, the traditional…
Climate-aware decision-making: lessons for electric grid infrastructure planning and operations
Brockway, Anna M, Liyang Wang, Laurel N Dunn, Duncan Callaway, and Andrew Jones. “Climate-Aware Decision-Making: Lessons for Electric Grid Infrastructure Planning and Operations.” Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 7 (June 28, 2022): 073002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7815. Climate change poses significant risks to large-scale infrastructure systems and brings considerable uncertainties that challenge historical…
Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk (2022)
Schlumberger, J., Haasnoot, M., de Ruiter, M., and Aerts, J.: Proposing DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk. iScience Volume 25, Issue 10, 2022, 105219, ISSN 2589-0042, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105219. Climate change impacts are increasingly complex owing to compounding, interacting, and cascading risks across sectors. However, approaches…
post-MORDM: Mapping policies to synthesize optimization and robustness results for decision-maker compromise (2022)
Bonham, N., Kasprzyk, J., Zagona, E., 2022. post-MORDM: Mapping policies to synthesize optimization and robustness results for decision-maker compromise. Environ. Model. Softw. 157, 105491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105491 This paper introduces post-MORDM, a decision-support framework that augments Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM). MORDM often creates an intractable number of environmental management policies,…
From optimal to robust climate strategies: expanding integrated assessment model ensembles to manage economic, social, and environmental objectives (2022)
Ferrari Luca, Angelo Carlino, Paolo Gazzotti, Massimo Tavoni, and Andrea Castelletti. 2022. “From Optimal to Robust Climate Strategies: Expanding Integrated Assessment Model Ensembles to Manage Economic, Social, and Environmental Objectives.” Environmental Research Letters. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac843b Cost-benefit integrated assessment models generate welfare-maximizing mitigation pathways under a set of assumptions to…