Borgomeo, E. , Mortazavi‐Naeini, M. , Hall, J. W. and Guillod, B. P. (2018), Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty. Earth’s Future. . doi:10.1002/2017EF000730 Risk‐based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk…
Systems Modelling Conference – University of New South Wales, Canberra Campus
The University of New South Wales, Canberra is running a one-day conference for the second year on the topic of systems thinking and systems modelling covering broad range of methods, in particular methods for modelling under uncertainty. The 2017 programme is available here and videos here. The 2018 conference will be…
Workshop in Strategic Foresight, Deep Uncertainty, and Leadership. May 15 – 17, 2018. Washington, D.C.
The Atlantic Council and Penn State’s College of Engineering invite you to a workshop event on Strategic Foresight, Deep Uncertainty and Leadership. The event includes an evening conversation with reception and a three-days workshop. Socioengineering Systems Innovation: Forces of Disruption and Leadership, an evening conversation and reception will be held…
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios (2018)
Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., Link, R., Calvin, K., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J., “Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios.”, Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000701, (2018). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000701/full An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result…
Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research: An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty (2017)
Guivarch C., Lempert R., Trutnevyte E. Scenario techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: an overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty. Editorial of the Thematic Issue. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 97, 201-210. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217303936 Scenario techniques are a teeming field in energy…
A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions (2018)
Moallemi, E. A., & Malekpour, S. (2018). A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions. Energy Research and Social Science, 35(February 2017), 205–216. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.022 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961730350X Energy transitions are complex transformation processes, which involve different actors and unfold in a deeply uncertain future. These features make the long-term…
What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock (2018)
Pot, W.D., Dewulf, A., Biesbroek, G.R., Van der Vlist, M., Termeer C.J.A.M. (2018) What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.031 Abstract Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future…
Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty (2018)
Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes….
Save the Date – Annual Meeting 2018
We are pleased to announce details of the DMDU Society’s 2018 Annual Meeting, which will be held 13 through 15 November, 2018 – please save the date! This year’s meeting will be held in Southern California and will be hosted jointly by the RAND Corporation and the local government…
Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management (2018)
Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two state-of-the-art decision support methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we…