Rebecca Smith, Edith Zagona, Joseph Kasprzyk, Nathan Bonham, Elliot Alexander, Alan Butler, James Prairie, Carly Jerla http://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12985 “Deep uncertainty” is a term that describes planning contexts in which it is impossible to determine the likelihood of any given set of future conditions, there are conflicting performance objectives and priorities, and…
Visualizations for decision support in scenario-based multiobjective optimization
Shavazipour, Babooshka, Manuel López-Ibáñez, and Kaisa Miettinen. “Visualizations for decision support in scenario-based multiobjective optimization.” Information Sciences 578 (2021): 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2021.07.025 Abstract We address challenges of decision problems when managers need to optimize several conflicting objectives simultaneously under uncertainty. We propose visualization tools to support the solution of such scenario-based multiobjective optimization…
New Article: Robust climate change adaptation for environmental flows in the Goulburn River, Australia
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2021.789206/abstract Climate change presents severe risks for the implementation and success of environmental flows worldwide. Current environmental flow assessments tend to assume climate stationarity, so there is an urgent need for robust environmental flow programs that allow adaptation to changing flow regimes due to climate change. Designing and implementing robust…
Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience (2021)
Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25877-w The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack…
New article on Keynesian uncertainty
Dear All, The article ” Financial markets and Keynes’s long-term expectations” is published in the Special Issue: F. H. Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit and J. M. Keynes’ Treatise on Probability after 100 years, Cambridge Journal of Economics Cambridge Journal of Economics, Volume 45, Issue 5, September 2021, Pages 1047–1067,…
Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach
Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen,Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach,Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 144, 2021, 105134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105134. Abstract: This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable…
DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY)
Warren Walker, Delft University of Technology DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY) Warren Walker (Delft University of Technology) and Vincent Marchau (Radboud University) In November, 2020, McKinsey & Co. published an article entitled “When nothing is normal: Managing in extreme uncertainty”[1]. It makes many recommendations for private companies that DMDU’ers have been…
Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (2021)
Jafino, B. A., Kwakkel, J., Klijn, F., Dung, N. V., van Delden, H., Haasnoot, M., & Sutanudjaja, E. (2021). Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001939. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001939 Abstract: The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized….
Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice (2021)
Full citation: Jafino, B.A., Hallegatte, S. & Rozenberg, J. Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2021). URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01030-9 Abstract: As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to…
Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice (2021)
Bonjean Stanton, M.C., Roelich, K., 2021. Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 171, 120939. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120939 AbstractDeep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to…