Cite: Kahagalage, S. D., Turan, H. H., Elsawah, S., & Gary, M. S. (2024). Exploratory modelling and analysis to support decision-making under deep uncertainty: A case study from defence resource planning and asset management. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 200, 123150. url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523008351?via%3Dihub Abstract Emerging approaches and tools in the literature for…
Self-Adaptive Multi-Objective Climate Policies Align Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies (2022)
Carlino, A., Tavoni, M., & Castelletti, A. (2022). Self-adaptive multi-objective climate policies align mitigation and adaptation strategies. Earth’s Future, 10, e2022EF002767. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002767 Intensifying climate change impacts can divert the economic resources away from emission reduction toward adaptation to reduce rising damages, jeopardizing temperature stabilization within safe levels. Indeed, the traditional…
Simulation-Based Optimization: Implications of Complex Adaptive Systems and Deep Uncertainty (2022)
Tolk, Andreas. 2022. “Simulation-Based Optimization: Implications of Complex Adaptive Systems and Deep Uncertainty” Information 13, no. 10: 469. https://doi.org/10.3390/info13100469 Within the modeling and simulation community, simulation-based optimization has often been successfully used to improve productivity and business processes. However, the increased importance of using simulation to better understand complex adaptive systems…
post-MORDM: Mapping policies to synthesize optimization and robustness results for decision-maker compromise (2022)
Bonham, N., Kasprzyk, J., Zagona, E., 2022. post-MORDM: Mapping policies to synthesize optimization and robustness results for decision-maker compromise. Environ. Model. Softw. 157, 105491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105491 This paper introduces post-MORDM, a decision-support framework that augments Many Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM). MORDM often creates an intractable number of environmental management policies,…
From optimal to robust climate strategies: expanding integrated assessment model ensembles to manage economic, social, and environmental objectives (2022)
Ferrari Luca, Angelo Carlino, Paolo Gazzotti, Massimo Tavoni, and Andrea Castelletti. 2022. “From Optimal to Robust Climate Strategies: Expanding Integrated Assessment Model Ensembles to Manage Economic, Social, and Environmental Objectives.” Environmental Research Letters. doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac843b Cost-benefit integrated assessment models generate welfare-maximizing mitigation pathways under a set of assumptions to…
Risk Analysis under Structural Uncertainty (2018)
Sven Ove Hansson, “Risk analysis under structural uncertainty”, pp. 241-264 in Terje Aven and Enrico Zio, Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management, Wiley 2018. Abstract: Standard decision theory is devoted to problems in which we have a well-defined decision to make. We are assumed to know what we are going to…
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
Haasnoot, M., van ’t Klooster, S. & van Alphen, J. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 52, 273–285 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003 Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring…
Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (2018)
Eker S & Kwakkel JH (2018). Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making. Environmental Modelling & Software 105: 201-216. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies…
Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios: Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector (2017)
Eker S, van Daalen E, & Thissen W (2017). Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios: Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector. Futures 93: 27-43. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2017.08.002. Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on…
Computational design optimization of concrete mixtures: A review (2018)
Citation: DeRousseau, M, J Kasprzyk, W Srubar III “Computational design optimization of concrete mixtures: A review” Cement and Concrete Research 109: 42-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cemconres.2018.04.007 Abstract: A comprehensive review of optimization research concerning the design and proportioning of concrete mixtures is presented herein. Mixture design optimization is motivated by an ever-increasing need for designers and decision-makers to…