Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience (2021)

Collaborative management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam increases economic benefits and resilience https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25877-w The landscape of water infrastructure in the Nile Basin is changing with the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Although this dam could improve electricity supply in Ethiopia and its neighbors, there is a lack…

read more

Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach

Babooshka Shavazipour, Jan H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen,Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach,Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 144, 2021, 105134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105134. Abstract: This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable…

read more

DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY)

Warren Walker, Delft University of Technology DMDU GOES MAINSTREAM (McKINSEY) Warren Walker (Delft University of Technology) and Vincent Marchau (Radboud University) In November, 2020, McKinsey & Co. published an article entitled “When nothing is normal: Managing in extreme uncertainty”[1]. It makes many recommendations for private companies that DMDU’ers have been…

read more

Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (2021)

Jafino, B. A., Kwakkel, J., Klijn, F., Dung, N. V., van Delden, H., Haasnoot, M., & Sutanudjaja, E. (2021). Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth’s Future, 9, e2020EF001939. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001939 Abstract: The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized….

read more

Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice (2021)

Full citation: Jafino, B.A., Hallegatte, S. & Rozenberg, J. Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2021). URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01030-9 Abstract: As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to…

read more

Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice (2021)

Bonjean Stanton, M.C., Roelich, K., 2021. Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 171, 120939. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120939 AbstractDeep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to…

read more

Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee (2021)

van ‘t Klooster, S.A. & Veenman, S.A. (2021). Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee. Futures, vol. 127. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cWGW3jdJdMQU Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped…

read more

Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty (2020)

CITATION: Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. & Bryan, B. A. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty. Global Environ. Change 102186, 102186, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 (2020). ABSTRACT: Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in…

read more

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Paul K. Davis and Steven W. Popper (2019), “Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand,” Journal of Policy and Complex Systems, 2(5), 181-201. https://view.joomag.com/journal-on-policy-complex-systems-volume-5-number-2-fall-2019/0729098001579703740/p182?short= Abstract: Good policy analysis needs to improve in routinely addressing not only uncertainty about model inputs to the model used,…

read more

Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making

Robert Lempert, James Syme, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, Garett Ballard-Rosa, Kacey Lizon, Ifeanyi Edochie. Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making (2020) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1727766 Problem, research strategy, and findings: Prediction-based approaches, the heart of current transportation planning practice, are inadequate…

read more