Michael Smithson and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise, Risk Analysis, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12397/pdf Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of…
Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan (2015)
Kalra, Nidhi Rajiv; Groves, David G.; Bonzanigo, Laura; Perez, Edmundo Molina; Ramos Taipe, Cayo Leonidas; Cabanillas, Ivan Rodriguez; Brandon, Carter J.. 2015. Peru – Robust decision-making in the water sector : a strategy for implementing Lima’s long-term water resources master plan. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24701804/peru-robust-decision-making-water-sector-strategy-implementing-lima’s-long-term-water-resources-master-plan How can water resource…
Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives (2015)
Kasprzyk, J., Reed, P.M., and Hadka, D., “Battling Arrow’s Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, (In-Press). This study demonstrates how Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, a theory of social choice, is of direct concern when formulating water-resources systems planning problems. Traditional strategies for solving…
Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations (2015)
Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Mason, E., and Reed, P. (2015). “Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage. ,10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000570 , 04015050. Optimal management policies for water reservoir operation are generally designed via stochastic dynamic programming…
Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds? (2015)
Ward, V., Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Confronting Tipping Points: Can Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms Discover Pollution Control Tradeoffs Given Environmental Thresholds?”, Environmental Modelling & Software, v73, 27-43, 2015. This study contributes a stochastic, multi-objective adaptation of the classic environmental economics Lake Problem as a computationally simple but mathematically…
Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response (2015)
Singh, R., Reed, P.M., and Keller, K., “Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response”, Ecology and Society v20, No.3, 12, doi: 10.5751/ES-07687-200312, 2015. Managing ecosystems with deeply uncertain threshold responses and multiple decision makers poses nontrivial decision analytical challenges. The problem is imbued…
Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support (2015)
Parker, A.M., Srinivasan, S.V., Lempert, R.J., & Berry, S.H. (2015). Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 91, 64-77. Scenario planning traditionally relies on qualitative methods to choose its scenarios. Recently, quantitative decision support tools have also begun to facilitate such choices. This study uses…
Social Responses to Water Management Decisions (2015)
Warren E. Walker, Daniel P. Loucks, and Gemma Carr, “Social Responses to Water Management Decisions”, Environmental Processes: Volume 2, Issue 3 (2015), Pages 485-509. doi: 10.1007/s40710-015-0083-5 We suggest that those involved with environmental and water resources planning and management need to consider the social responses as well as the economic…
Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study (2015)
Wall, T., Walker, W., Marchau, V., and Bertolini, L. (2015). “Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study.”Journal of Infrastructure Systems. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000257 , 05015004 Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep…
Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2015)
L. Drouet, V. Bosetti & M. Tavoni. Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Nature Climate Change 5, 937–940 (2015) doi:10.1038/nclimate2721 Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks….