The World Bank is hiring a Senior Economist in the Latin America and Caribbean team, to lead analytical thinking and innovation in the area of environment and natural resource economics. This will include remaining current on the latest developments in the field and translating the latest knowledge into operationally relevant…
Trade-off informed adaptive and robust real options water resources planning
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.104117 Planning water resource systems is challenged primarily by two realities. First, uncertainty is inherent in the predictions of future supplies and demands due for example to hydrological variability and climate change. To build societal resilience water planners should seek to enhance the adaptability and robustness of water resource system…
Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways (2022)
E. A. Moallemi, L. Gao, S. Eker, B. Bryan, Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways. Global Sustainability 5, 1-17 (2022). url: https://t.co/2cGUyA0GbK Non-technical summary: Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human–Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs)….
The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation (2021)
The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation Jonathan Metzger,Annika Carlsson Kanyama,Per Wikman-Svahn,Karin Mossberg Sonnek,Christoffer Carstens,Misse Wester &Christoffer Wedebrand https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1523908X.2021.1893160?src= ABSTRACT Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate…
Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee (2021)
van ‘t Klooster, S.A. & Veenman, S.A. (2021). Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee. Futures, vol. 127. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cWGW3jdJdMQU Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped…
Adaptive planning and adaptive pathways
By Marjolijn Haasnoot The adaptation pathways approach to decision making under deep uncertainty emerged almost 15 years ago. The approach explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways method provides stepwise guidance to support the…
Planning for a sustainable recovery and a net-zero carbon economy
By Adrien Vogt-Schilb The ongoing wildfires and hurricane seasons in Central and North America remind us that containing the climate crisis is as urgent as ever. So while the priority is to put an end to the health crisis, a critical question is how governments can best support a sustainable…
Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? (2020)
Kwakkel, JH. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e638. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.638 Abstract:Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in…
2020 DMDU Webinar Series
In this nine-episode webinar series, the Tecnologico de Monterrey hosts researchers sharing their expertise in DMDU methods, tools, and applications ranging from city planning and decarbonization to poverty reduction and autonomous vehicles. The final webinar of the series explores deep uncertainty in the context of COVID19. Recordings of these sessions…
Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…