The flexibility gamble: challenges for mainstreaming flexible approaches to climate change adaptation Jonathan Metzger,Annika Carlsson Kanyama,Per Wikman-Svahn,Karin Mossberg Sonnek,Christoffer Carstens,Misse Wester &Christoffer Wedebrand https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1523908X.2021.1893160?src= ABSTRACT Adaptive and flexible approaches based on implementing different measures as new information emerges have been proposed as a way of enabling robustness towards uncertain future climate…
Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee (2021)
van ‘t Klooster, S.A. & Veenman, S.A. (2021). Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee. Futures, vol. 127. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cWGW3jdJdMQU Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped…
Adaptive planning and adaptive pathways
By Marjolijn Haasnoot The adaptation pathways approach to decision making under deep uncertainty emerged almost 15 years ago. The approach explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways method provides stepwise guidance to support the…
Planning for a sustainable recovery and a net-zero carbon economy
By Adrien Vogt-Schilb The ongoing wildfires and hurricane seasons in Central and North America remind us that containing the climate crisis is as urgent as ever. So while the priority is to put an end to the health crisis, a critical question is how governments can best support a sustainable…
Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? (2020)
Kwakkel, JH. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e638. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.638 Abstract:Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in…
2020 DMDU Webinar Series
In this nine-episode webinar series, the Tecnologico de Monterrey hosts researchers sharing their expertise in DMDU methods, tools, and applications ranging from city planning and decarbonization to poverty reduction and autonomous vehicles. The final webinar of the series explores deep uncertainty in the context of COVID19. Recordings of these sessions…
Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…
Seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair
We are soliciting suggestions and seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair. Our DMDU Society is governed by an eight-member, volunteer leadership team elected by its membership. The leadership team’s Funding and Career Development position is currently vacant. According to our Rules and Processes, the leadership team…
2017 Membership Survey
You will find below our 2017 membership survey. Please, answer these questions, as your answers will help us to shape our next actions. The survey will be opened for answers until Oct 20th. Click on this link to answer the survey on a separate page.
Uncertainty at AGU
Several sessions at AGU 2017 conference will adress (hydrologic) uncertainty. An overview is given here: http://aguhu.blogspot.nl/2017/07/which-session-to-submit-to-hydrologic.html DMDU draws on a range of approaches to deal with uncertainty. Methods for living with (deep) uncertainty is a key focus, but not all aspects of a situation are deeply uncertain. Even if we…