Please find below the available materials from our 2019 Annual Meeting.

5 November 2019 – Training Day

08:30 – 09:00 Registration
09:00 – 09:30 Introduction to the Training Day  (Room H-I-J)
09:30 – 11:00 Interactive exercise: The varieties of uncertainty (Room H-I-J)
11:00 – 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 – 12:30 Generalized framework for DMDU methods: A guide to the field (Room H-I-J)
12:30 – 13:00 Overview of parallel demos (Room H-I-J)
13:00 – 14:00  Lunch
14:00 – 14:45 Demo Session 1
Rhodium (Room G)
EMA Workbench (Room H)
RDM Tableau Tools (Room I)
DAPP, Pathways generator, and Sustainable Delta Game (Room J)
Argentina Transport Risk Analysis (ATRA) Tool (Board Room)
14:45 – 15:15 Coffee break
15:15 – 16:00 Demo Session 2 (same options as Demos 1 with SAlib added in room SimLab)
16:00 – 17:00 Practitioners panel and Q&A: DMDU in application (Room A)

6 November 2019 – Day 1

08:30 – 09:00 Coffee & Registration
09:00 – 10:30 Opening Plenary (Room A)
Opening & icebreaking session
Keynote speeches:
Karen Meijer: Water-related conflicts and migration – the importance of understanding human responses to water shortage
Tatiana Filatova: Resilience and decision-making under deep uncertainty: building bridges
Casey Helgeson: Where are the values in your analysis?
Nidhi Kalra: Can Congress Contemplate Deep Uncertainty?
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee
11:00 – 12:30 Parallel session – Supporting decision making under deep uncertainty with participatory approaches (Room A)
Chair: Vincent de Gooyert, Willem Auping, Etiënne Rouwette  
Co-designing multiple futures in a participatory approach applied to Texel, the Netherlands
Floortje d’Hont, Jill Slinger  

Formulating an adaptive plan to implement innovative concepts with experts’ opinion, an application to Mobility-as-a-Service
Peraphan Jittrapirom, Vincent Marchau, Rob van der Heijden, Henk Meurs,  

Enhancing Urban Mobility through a Participatory DMDU “Shadow” Planning Process
Tim McDonald, Thomas Small, Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Diogo Prosdocimi  

Using participatory scenario development for modelling forest landscapes as social-ecological systems (SESs)
Melvin Lippe, Anastasia Yang, Richard Fischer, Sven Günter  

Parallel session – Developing robust defense and security strategies and plans (Room G)
Chair: James Maltby, Sean Monaghan    

WEI-WUV for Assessing Force Effectiveness: Managing Uncertainty with Info-Gap Theory
Yakov Ben-Haim  

Evaluating Enterprise Level Acquisition Timelines Under Deep Uncertainty
Sarah Moody, Stephanie Martin, Matthew Walsh, Brian Carter  

Introducing civilian population into wargaming: an experimental study of NATO Civil-Military Cooperation.
Natalia Wojtowicz

Helping the US Army Assess Surge Expansion with RDM
Steven Popper  

Parallel session – Techniques to support long-term strategic decision making under deep uncertainty for energy and other infrastructures (Room I-J)
Chair: Will Usher, Elco Koks, Raghav Pant  

Supporting the biofuel debate with stochastic modelling of greenhouse gas emissions
Judith Verstegen, Renan Barroso, Floor van der Hilst  

The Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Long-Term Urban Water Demand Forecasts: how wrong can you be?
Alexa Bruce, Casey Brown, Alexis Dufour

Robust design of off-grid hybrid energy systems under climatic and technological uncertainty
Federico Giudici, Andrea Castelletti, Elisabetta Garofalo, Holger R. Maier

Using artificial neural networks for long term adaptive decision making in water systems.
James Tomlinson, Julien Harou
12:30 – 14:00 Lunch (Room F) + Posters (Room H)
14:00 – 15:30 Parallel session – Decision making under uncertain sea level rise: A special DMDU case? (Room A)
Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot, David Behar, Judy Lawrence, Natasha Barlow, Goneri Le Cozannet, Tim Reeder, Detlef Stammer  

Deep uncertainty in the KNMI’2021 sea-level projections
Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfhout. Robert Vos  

Matching observed records of local sea-level rise to long term projections for flexible adaptation planning
Bart van den Hurk, Sybren Drijfhout, Fedor Baart, Dewi le Bars, Renske de Winter, Marjolijn Haasnoot

Practical appraisal of extra-probabilistic approach to support decision-making under deep uncertainty for future coastal flooding
Jeremy Rohmer, Goneri Le Cozannet, Jean-Charles Manceau  

Impact of regional sea-level rise on European sandy coasts under high-end scenarios
Remi Thieblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Alexandra Toimil, Íñigo J. Losada, Benoit Meyssignac, Melisa Menendez  

Coastal decision-making under deep-uncertainty or near-certainty? — the New Zealand case
Scott Stephens, Judy Lawrence, Rob Bell  

Robust and flexible land reclamation strategies in the Maldives
Jochen Hinkel, Thomas van der Pol  

Parallel session – Combining network science and deep uncertainty methods to inform transport resilience planning (Room I-J)
Chair: Julie Rozenberg, Raghav Pant  

Roadshow: comparing road network resilience in 210 countries
Julie Rozenberg, Charles Fox, Mersedeh Tariverdi, Elco Koks, Stephane Hallegatte

River flood disruptions of the European road network: a tipping point for Europe?
Kees C.H. van Ginkel, Elco Koks, Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Dottori, Luc Feyen  

Equity considerations in transport network criticality analysis
Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel  

Using network science to improve the resilience of transportation networks under seismic hazard
Nazli Yonca Aydin    

Transportation and Supply Chain Resilience in the United Republic of Tanzania
Celian Colon, Hallegatte Stéphane, Julie Rozenberg  

Ensuring a Resilient Road Network in the Western Balkans with Deeply Uncertain Natural Hazards
Kelly Klima, Craig Bond, Miriam Marlier, Robert Lempert, Monika Crouse, Peter Bar, Jennie Topham, Michael Green  

Transport risk and resilience analysis under uncertainty
Raghav Pant, Elco Koks, Tom Russell, Jim Hall  

Parallel session – Moving towards adaptive governance for sustainability under conditions of complexity and deep uncertainty (Room G)
Chairs & presenters: Zora Kovacic, Silvio Funtowicz, Roger Strand, Dominique Chu  
1. Silvio Funtowicz: “Uncertainty”
2. Dominique Chu: “Complexity”
3. Zora Kovacic: “Sustainability”
4. Roger Strand: “Crisis”
5. Plenary debate open to the audience
6. Final conclusions by the panel  
15:30 – 16:00 Coffee
16:00 – 17:30 Parallel session – Decision making under uncertain sea level rise: A special DMDU case? (Room A)
Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot, David Behar, Judy Lawrence, Natasha Barlow, Goneri Le Cozannet, Tim Reeder, Detlef Stammer  

Exploring the effects of adaptation strategies on population migration under uncertain sea-level rise
Lena Reimann, Bryan Jones, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios Vafeidis  

Test of introducing a policy pathway approach to sea-level rise in municipal planning in Sweden
Riitta Raty, Annika Carlsson Kanyama, Christoffer Carstens, Karin Mossberg Sonnek, Per Wikman-Svahn  

UK contribution to Decision making under uncertain sea-level rise: a special DMDU case
Tim Reeder, Jason Lowe, Natasha Barlow, Ivan Haigh  

Sea level rise scenarios used in the United States
David Behar  

Reflecting on highly uncertain sea-level rise and the use of DMDU approaches: experiences from the Netherlands
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ferdinand Diermanse, Jaap Kwadijk, Bart van den Hurk, Dewi Le Bars, Jos van Alphen  

Parallel session – Innovations for scenario discovery when seeking dynamic, robust, and resilient action pathways (Room I-J)
Chair: Patrick Reed, Jan Kwakkel, Jon Lamontagne

Behavior-based scenario discovery
Patrick Steinmann, Willem Auping, Jan Kwakkel  

Premortem and DMDU: separated by a common purpose
James Maltby, Gareth Conway, Jim Maltby

Increasing adaptation in urban planning. An adaptation pathways approach to mitigate the hydrological risk in the X Municipality of Rome
Simona Mannucci, Jan Kwakkel, Hedwig Van Delden  

A Scenario Discovery Approach for Designing Dynamic, Robust Adaptive Strategies: Optimization and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Critical Thresholds and Adaptation Options
Edmundo Molina, David Groves, Steven Popper  

Parallel session – A decision capability framework: Matching decision capabilities to decision support approaches to make more effective decisions in deep uncertainty (Room G)
Chair: Katy Roelich, Mark Workman and Muriel Bonjean Stanton  

From root to crown: Exploring the fit between capabilities and robust decision support approaches at different decision levels in forest management
Roderich von Detten, Naomi Radke  
Logistics Decision Capabilities and Support Approach Towards Effective Decision in Nigerian Health System: A Study of Tertiary Health Facilities.
Francis Andem
17:45 Group departing from meeting venue to dinner restaurant
18:00 – 21:00 Dinner

7 November 2019 – Day 2

08:45 – 09:00 Coffee
09:00 – 10:30 Parallel session – The use of data and information for decision making in humanitarian crises  (Room I-J)
Chair: Tina Comes  

1. Juriaan Lahr (Information needs in different challenges)
2. Marc van den Homberg (Several case studies)
3. Kashif Nadeem Muhammad (Mozambique case)
4. Freek Huthoff (Mozambique case)
5. Stuart Campo (Information needs in different challenges)
6. Olga Aymerich (Iraq case)
7. Philippe Ker Rault (Iraq case)  

Parallel session – Innovations for scenario discovery when seeking dynamic, robust, and resilient action pathways (Room A)
Chair: Patrick Reed, Jan Kwakkel, Jon Lamontagne  

Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests within the Upper Colorado River Basin
Antonia Hadjimichael, Julianne Quinn, Erin Wilson, Patrick Reed, Leon Basdekas, David Yates, Michelle Garrison  

Consequential Compromises: Exploring the Cooperative Stability of Multi-Actor Robustness Compromises in Regional Infrastructure Investment Pathways
David Gold, Bernardo Trindad, Patrick Reed, Gregory Characklis  

Coordination and control: Limits in standard simulation-based vulnerability assessments of complex multi-reservoir systems
Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan Lamontagne, Richard B. Lammers  

Using the scenario discovery approach to identify winners and losers of adaptation policies under uncertainties
Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel  

Parallel session – Institutions and governance arrangements: Enabling forward-looking decisions under uncertainty by governments (Room G)
Chair: Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, Judy Lawrence  

Protecting and representing the interests of future generations in policy-making
Samuel Hilton  

Balancing equity and efficiency in adaptation to climate change: Decision-making on resource allocation at the city scale
Hanne van den Berg  

Assessing the adaptive capacity of peri-urban institutions as part of an adaptive pathways approach for water management in India
Sharlene L. Gomes, Leon M. Hermans  

Bridging Two Approaches for Sustainable Development: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM)
Shirin Malekpour, Warren Walker, Fjalar de Haan, Vincent Marchau, Niki Frantzeskaki  

Uncertainty and credibility, Experience in supporting a local institution in Benin aimed at dealing with (deep) uncertainty.
George de Gooijer, Maman Daouda  
10:30 – 11:00 Coffee
11:00 – 12:30 Parallel session – Practical challenges in the application of DMDU methodologies to climate risk assessment and management (Room A)
Chair: Ad Jeuken, Umit Taner, Casey Brown, Patrick Ray  

Mainstreaming DMDU approaches into water resources practices – The DTF experience
Diego J. Rodriguez, Homero A. Paltan, Luis E. Garcia  

A streamlined approach to applying DMDU methods for climate-resilient infrastructure planning – Lessons from Mendoza, Argentina
Michelle Miro, David Groves, James Syme, Alejandro Becerra, Guillermo Cúneo, Juan Andrés Piña, Adrien Vogt-Schlib, Valentina Saavedra Gomez      

Communicating climate change risk for an investment project in irrigation and flood protection in West Kenya
Marnix van der Vat, Luis Garcia, Johannes Hunink, Homero Paltan, Diego Rodriguez, Dana Stuparu  

Parallel session – Incorporating values in modelling and decision analyses (Room I-J)
Chair: Casey Helgeson, Nancy Tuana  

A method selection framework for developing pathways to sustainability under uncertainty
Enayat A. Moallemi, Brett A. Bryan, Shirin Malekpour, Katrina Szetey, Michalis Hadjikakou, Angela M. Rojas, Abdullah Shaikh, Fjalar J. De Haan, Alex Smajgl, Emily Nicholson, Euan G. Ritchie, Alexy Voinov, Wikke Novalia  

Operationalizing ethical principles in flood risk management: A case study on the Dutch-German Rhine
Alessio Ciullo, Jan Kwakkel, Karin de Bruijn, Neelke Doorn, Frans Klijn  

Climate policy considering heterogeneous world views
Sara Turner, Lisa Rennels, Robert Lempert, David Anthoff  

Trust and values at the science-policy interface
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti  

Parallel session – Finding the tipping point – Deep uncertainty for resilience engineering in coupled & complex systems (Room G)
Chair: Tina Comes, Tatiana Filatova  

Lifelines: the resilient infrastructure opportunity
Stephane Hallegatte, Jun Rentschler, Julie Rozenberg  

The uncertainty space in urban planning
Supriya Krishnan, Tina Comes  

Using surrogate models to analyse resilience of ABMs
Guus ten Broeke, George Van Voorn  

Operationalizing Urban Resilience: A Machine Learning Approach
Mikhail Sirenko, Scott Cunningham, Yilin Huang, Alexander Verbraeck  
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch (Room F) + Posters (Room H)
13:30 – 15:00 Parallel session – Practical challenges in the application of DMDU methodologies to climate risk assessment and management (Room A)
Chair: Ad Jeuken, Umit Taner, Casey Brown, Patrick Ray  

A systematic exploration of change in the Tuolumne River Watershed
John Kucharski, Wyatt Arnold, Saiful Haque Rahat, Jennifer Olszewski, Romain Maendly  

Robust decision making for sustainable development: Classifying, sequencing, and evaluating alternative methodological choices
Enayat A. Moallemi, Fateme Zare, Patrick M. Reed, Sondoss Elsawah, Michael Ryan, Brett A. Bryan  

Selection of the smallest subset of informative scenarios for the robust optimization of off-grid hybrid energy systems
Federico Giudici, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, Holger R. Maier  
From risk assessment to adaptation pathways: improvement of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis for the Limari basin in Chile
Chris Luger, Ad Jeuken, Koen Verbist, Andrew Warren, Christopher Vivanco, Hector Maureira, Pablo Álvarez  

Parallel session – Fostering connections between resilience thinking and DMDU approaches for achieving long-term sustainability (Room I-J)
Chair: Benjamin Bryant, Jan Kuiper  

Embracing theoretical and methodological pluralism in resilience thinking and DMDU
Wei Liu  

Building bridges: Lessons from resilience planning and applied RDM analysis in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Jordan Fischbach  

Resilience as an analytical uncertainty
Patrick Steinmann, George van Voorn  

Uncertainty and multifunctionality as bridging concepts from socio-ecological resilience to infrastructure finance in water resource decision making
Anita Lazurko (remote)  

Toward Supply chain resilience: consequence-based risk analysis using exploratory modeling
Bahareh Zohoori, Jan Kwakkel, Alexander Verbraeck
15:00 – 15:30 Coffee
15:30 – 16:30 Parallel session – Embracing uncertainty in regional energy planning and management (Room I-J)
Chair: Cornelia Colijn, Mark Alan Hughes, Oscar Serpell  

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Developing multi-scale internally consistent scenarios for Canada’s energy futures
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, Vanessa Schweizer  

Participatory multi-modelling under deep uncertainty for robust energy infrastructure development strategy
Igor Nikolic, Jan Kwakkel, Eefje Cuppen, Jaco Quist  

Using DMDU Methods to Evaluate the Robustness of Costa Rica’s National Decarbonization Plan
David Groves, Edmundo Molina, Luis Fernando Victor Gallardo, Guido Godinez Zamora, Jairo Quiros Tortos, Felipe De Leon, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, Adrien Vogt-Schilb  

Parallel session – Ex-post evaluation of deep uncertainty in infrastructure design (Room G)
Chair: Marc Neumann  

Do we understand performance dependencies, trade-offs, information value, and robustness in dam design and operation?
Federica Bertoni, Andrea Castelletti, Matteo Giuliani, Patrick M Reed

Quantifying the feedbacks between flood infrastructure and geomorphological processes in an uncertain deltaic environment: A case study of the coastal zone of Bangladesh
Amelia Paszkowski, Jim Hall  

How high to elevate a house to manage deeply uncertain flood risks?
Mahkameh Zarekarizi, Klaus Keller  

Parallel session – The deep uncertainties of legislative processes (Room A)
Chair: Nidhi Kalra, Steven Popper, Robert Lempert    

Can Congress Contemplate Deep Uncertainty?
Nidhi Kalra  

The Road to Zero: DMDU Concepts in Support of Legislative Coalition Building
Steven Popper  

Can Credible Commitment to Long-Term Policy Goals Be Accomplished?
Detlef Sprinz
16:30 – 17:30 Closing Plenary (Room A)
Keynote speech: Paul Davis
Closing remarks from the DMDU Society’s Board
17:30 – 18:30 Closing Reception