Please find below the available materials from our 2019 Annual Meeting.
5 November 2019 – Training Day
| 08:30 – 09:00 | Registration |
| 09:00 – 09:30 | Introduction to the Training Day (Room H-I-J) |
| 09:30 – 11:00 | Interactive exercise: The varieties of uncertainty (Room H-I-J) |
| 11:00 – 11:30 | Coffee break |
| 11:30 – 12:30 | Generalized framework for DMDU methods: A guide to the field (Room H-I-J) |
| 12:30 – 13:00 | Overview of parallel demos (Room H-I-J) |
| 13:00 – 14:00 | Lunch |
| 14:00 – 14:45 | Demo Session 1 Rhodium (Room G) EMA Workbench (Room H) RDM Tableau Tools (Room I) DAPP, Pathways generator, and Sustainable Delta Game (Room J) Argentina Transport Risk Analysis (ATRA) Tool (Board Room) |
| 14:45 – 15:15 | Coffee break |
| 15:15 – 16:00 | Demo Session 2 (same options as Demos 1 with SAlib added in room SimLab) |
| 16:00 – 17:00 | Practitioners panel and Q&A: DMDU in application (Room A) |
6 November 2019 – Day 1
| 08:30 – 09:00 | Coffee & Registration |
| 09:00 – 10:30 | Opening Plenary (Room A) Opening & icebreaking session Keynote speeches: Karen Meijer: Water-related conflicts and migration – the importance of understanding human responses to water shortage Tatiana Filatova: Resilience and decision-making under deep uncertainty: building bridges Casey Helgeson: Where are the values in your analysis? Nidhi Kalra: Can Congress Contemplate Deep Uncertainty? |
| 10:30 – 11:00 | Coffee |
| 11:00 – 12:30 | Parallel session – Supporting decision making under deep uncertainty with participatory approaches (Room A) Chair: Vincent de Gooyert, Willem Auping, Etiënne Rouwette Co-designing multiple futures in a participatory approach applied to Texel, the Netherlands Floortje d’Hont, Jill Slinger Formulating an adaptive plan to implement innovative concepts with experts’ opinion, an application to Mobility-as-a-Service Peraphan Jittrapirom, Vincent Marchau, Rob van der Heijden, Henk Meurs, Enhancing Urban Mobility through a Participatory DMDU “Shadow” Planning Process Tim McDonald, Thomas Small, Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Diogo Prosdocimi Using participatory scenario development for modelling forest landscapes as social-ecological systems (SESs) Melvin Lippe, Anastasia Yang, Richard Fischer, Sven Günter Parallel session – Developing robust defense and security strategies and plans (Room G) Chair: James Maltby, Sean Monaghan WEI-WUV for Assessing Force Effectiveness: Managing Uncertainty with Info-Gap Theory Yakov Ben-Haim Evaluating Enterprise Level Acquisition Timelines Under Deep Uncertainty Sarah Moody, Stephanie Martin, Matthew Walsh, Brian Carter Introducing civilian population into wargaming: an experimental study of NATO Civil-Military Cooperation. Natalia Wojtowicz Helping the US Army Assess Surge Expansion with RDM Steven Popper Parallel session – Techniques to support long-term strategic decision making under deep uncertainty for energy and other infrastructures (Room I-J) Chair: Will Usher, Elco Koks, Raghav Pant Supporting the biofuel debate with stochastic modelling of greenhouse gas emissions Judith Verstegen, Renan Barroso, Floor van der Hilst The Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Long-Term Urban Water Demand Forecasts: how wrong can you be? Alexa Bruce, Casey Brown, Alexis Dufour Robust design of off-grid hybrid energy systems under climatic and technological uncertainty Federico Giudici, Andrea Castelletti, Elisabetta Garofalo, Holger R. Maier Using artificial neural networks for long term adaptive decision making in water systems. James Tomlinson, Julien Harou |
| 12:30 – 14:00 | Lunch (Room F) + Posters (Room H) |
| 14:00 – 15:30 | Parallel session – Decision making under uncertain sea level rise: A special DMDU case? (Room A) Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot, David Behar, Judy Lawrence, Natasha Barlow, Goneri Le Cozannet, Tim Reeder, Detlef Stammer Deep uncertainty in the KNMI’2021 sea-level projections Dewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfhout. Robert Vos Matching observed records of local sea-level rise to long term projections for flexible adaptation planning Bart van den Hurk, Sybren Drijfhout, Fedor Baart, Dewi le Bars, Renske de Winter, Marjolijn Haasnoot Practical appraisal of extra-probabilistic approach to support decision-making under deep uncertainty for future coastal flooding Jeremy Rohmer, Goneri Le Cozannet, Jean-Charles Manceau Impact of regional sea-level rise on European sandy coasts under high-end scenarios Remi Thieblemont, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Alexandra Toimil, Íñigo J. Losada, Benoit Meyssignac, Melisa Menendez Coastal decision-making under deep-uncertainty or near-certainty? — the New Zealand case Scott Stephens, Judy Lawrence, Rob Bell Robust and flexible land reclamation strategies in the Maldives Jochen Hinkel, Thomas van der Pol Parallel session – Combining network science and deep uncertainty methods to inform transport resilience planning (Room I-J) Chair: Julie Rozenberg, Raghav Pant Roadshow: comparing road network resilience in 210 countries Julie Rozenberg, Charles Fox, Mersedeh Tariverdi, Elco Koks, Stephane Hallegatte River flood disruptions of the European road network: a tipping point for Europe? Kees C.H. van Ginkel, Elco Koks, Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Dottori, Luc Feyen Equity considerations in transport network criticality analysis Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel Using network science to improve the resilience of transportation networks under seismic hazard Nazli Yonca Aydin Transportation and Supply Chain Resilience in the United Republic of Tanzania Celian Colon, Hallegatte Stéphane, Julie Rozenberg Ensuring a Resilient Road Network in the Western Balkans with Deeply Uncertain Natural Hazards Kelly Klima, Craig Bond, Miriam Marlier, Robert Lempert, Monika Crouse, Peter Bar, Jennie Topham, Michael Green Transport risk and resilience analysis under uncertainty Raghav Pant, Elco Koks, Tom Russell, Jim Hall Parallel session – Moving towards adaptive governance for sustainability under conditions of complexity and deep uncertainty (Room G) Chairs & presenters: Zora Kovacic, Silvio Funtowicz, Roger Strand, Dominique Chu 1. Silvio Funtowicz: “Uncertainty” 2. Dominique Chu: “Complexity” 3. Zora Kovacic: “Sustainability” 4. Roger Strand: “Crisis” 5. Plenary debate open to the audience 6. Final conclusions by the panel |
| 15:30 – 16:00 | Coffee |
| 16:00 – 17:30 | Parallel session – Decision making under uncertain sea level rise: A special DMDU case? (Room A) Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot, David Behar, Judy Lawrence, Natasha Barlow, Goneri Le Cozannet, Tim Reeder, Detlef Stammer Exploring the effects of adaptation strategies on population migration under uncertain sea-level rise Lena Reimann, Bryan Jones, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios Vafeidis Test of introducing a policy pathway approach to sea-level rise in municipal planning in Sweden Riitta Raty, Annika Carlsson Kanyama, Christoffer Carstens, Karin Mossberg Sonnek, Per Wikman-Svahn UK contribution to Decision making under uncertain sea-level rise: a special DMDU case Tim Reeder, Jason Lowe, Natasha Barlow, Ivan Haigh Sea level rise scenarios used in the United States David Behar Reflecting on highly uncertain sea-level rise and the use of DMDU approaches: experiences from the Netherlands Marjolijn Haasnoot, Ferdinand Diermanse, Jaap Kwadijk, Bart van den Hurk, Dewi Le Bars, Jos van Alphen Parallel session – Innovations for scenario discovery when seeking dynamic, robust, and resilient action pathways (Room I-J) Chair: Patrick Reed, Jan Kwakkel, Jon Lamontagne Behavior-based scenario discovery Patrick Steinmann, Willem Auping, Jan Kwakkel Premortem and DMDU: separated by a common purpose James Maltby, Gareth Conway, Jim Maltby Increasing adaptation in urban planning. An adaptation pathways approach to mitigate the hydrological risk in the X Municipality of Rome Simona Mannucci, Jan Kwakkel, Hedwig Van Delden A Scenario Discovery Approach for Designing Dynamic, Robust Adaptive Strategies: Optimization and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Critical Thresholds and Adaptation Options Edmundo Molina, David Groves, Steven Popper Parallel session – A decision capability framework: Matching decision capabilities to decision support approaches to make more effective decisions in deep uncertainty (Room G) Chair: Katy Roelich, Mark Workman and Muriel Bonjean Stanton From root to crown: Exploring the fit between capabilities and robust decision support approaches at different decision levels in forest management Roderich von Detten, Naomi Radke Logistics Decision Capabilities and Support Approach Towards Effective Decision in Nigerian Health System: A Study of Tertiary Health Facilities. Francis Andem |
| 17:45 | Group departing from meeting venue to dinner restaurant |
| 18:00 – 21:00 | Dinner |
7 November 2019 – Day 2
| 08:45 – 09:00 | Coffee |
| 09:00 – 10:30 | Parallel session – The use of data and information for decision making in humanitarian crises (Room I-J) Chair: Tina Comes 1. Juriaan Lahr (Information needs in different challenges) 2. Marc van den Homberg (Several case studies) 3. Kashif Nadeem Muhammad (Mozambique case) 4. Freek Huthoff (Mozambique case) 5. Stuart Campo (Information needs in different challenges) 6. Olga Aymerich (Iraq case) 7. Philippe Ker Rault (Iraq case) Parallel session – Innovations for scenario discovery when seeking dynamic, robust, and resilient action pathways (Room A) Chair: Patrick Reed, Jan Kwakkel, Jon Lamontagne Defining robustness, vulnerabilities, and consequential scenarios for diverse stakeholder interests within the Upper Colorado River Basin Antonia Hadjimichael, Julianne Quinn, Erin Wilson, Patrick Reed, Leon Basdekas, David Yates, Michelle Garrison Consequential Compromises: Exploring the Cooperative Stability of Multi-Actor Robustness Compromises in Regional Infrastructure Investment Pathways David Gold, Bernardo Trindad, Patrick Reed, Gregory Characklis Coordination and control: Limits in standard simulation-based vulnerability assessments of complex multi-reservoir systems Charles Rougé, Patrick M. Reed, Danielle Grogan, Shan Zuidema, Alexander Prusevich, Stanley Glidden, Jonathan Lamontagne, Richard B. Lammers Using the scenario discovery approach to identify winners and losers of adaptation policies under uncertainties Bramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel Parallel session – Institutions and governance arrangements: Enabling forward-looking decisions under uncertainty by governments (Room G) Chair: Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, Judy Lawrence Protecting and representing the interests of future generations in policy-making Samuel Hilton Balancing equity and efficiency in adaptation to climate change: Decision-making on resource allocation at the city scale Hanne van den Berg Assessing the adaptive capacity of peri-urban institutions as part of an adaptive pathways approach for water management in India Sharlene L. Gomes, Leon M. Hermans Bridging Two Approaches for Sustainable Development: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) Shirin Malekpour, Warren Walker, Fjalar de Haan, Vincent Marchau, Niki Frantzeskaki Uncertainty and credibility, Experience in supporting a local institution in Benin aimed at dealing with (deep) uncertainty. George de Gooijer, Maman Daouda |
| 10:30 – 11:00 | Coffee |
| 11:00 – 12:30 | Parallel session – Practical challenges in the application of DMDU methodologies to climate risk assessment and management (Room A) Chair: Ad Jeuken, Umit Taner, Casey Brown, Patrick Ray Mainstreaming DMDU approaches into water resources practices – The DTF experience Diego J. Rodriguez, Homero A. Paltan, Luis E. Garcia A streamlined approach to applying DMDU methods for climate-resilient infrastructure planning – Lessons from Mendoza, Argentina Michelle Miro, David Groves, James Syme, Alejandro Becerra, Guillermo Cúneo, Juan Andrés Piña, Adrien Vogt-Schlib, Valentina Saavedra Gomez Communicating climate change risk for an investment project in irrigation and flood protection in West Kenya Marnix van der Vat, Luis Garcia, Johannes Hunink, Homero Paltan, Diego Rodriguez, Dana Stuparu Parallel session – Incorporating values in modelling and decision analyses (Room I-J) Chair: Casey Helgeson, Nancy Tuana A method selection framework for developing pathways to sustainability under uncertainty Enayat A. Moallemi, Brett A. Bryan, Shirin Malekpour, Katrina Szetey, Michalis Hadjikakou, Angela M. Rojas, Abdullah Shaikh, Fjalar J. De Haan, Alex Smajgl, Emily Nicholson, Euan G. Ritchie, Alexy Voinov, Wikke Novalia Operationalizing ethical principles in flood risk management: A case study on the Dutch-German Rhine Alessio Ciullo, Jan Kwakkel, Karin de Bruijn, Neelke Doorn, Frans Klijn Climate policy considering heterogeneous world views Sara Turner, Lisa Rennels, Robert Lempert, David Anthoff Trust and values at the science-policy interface Marina Baldissera Pacchetti Parallel session – Finding the tipping point – Deep uncertainty for resilience engineering in coupled & complex systems (Room G) Chair: Tina Comes, Tatiana Filatova Lifelines: the resilient infrastructure opportunity Stephane Hallegatte, Jun Rentschler, Julie Rozenberg The uncertainty space in urban planning Supriya Krishnan, Tina Comes Using surrogate models to analyse resilience of ABMs Guus ten Broeke, George Van Voorn Operationalizing Urban Resilience: A Machine Learning Approach Mikhail Sirenko, Scott Cunningham, Yilin Huang, Alexander Verbraeck |
| 12:30 – 13:30 | Lunch (Room F) + Posters (Room H) |
| 13:30 – 15:00 | Parallel session – Practical challenges in the application of DMDU methodologies to climate risk assessment and management (Room A) Chair: Ad Jeuken, Umit Taner, Casey Brown, Patrick Ray A systematic exploration of change in the Tuolumne River Watershed John Kucharski, Wyatt Arnold, Saiful Haque Rahat, Jennifer Olszewski, Romain Maendly Robust decision making for sustainable development: Classifying, sequencing, and evaluating alternative methodological choices Enayat A. Moallemi, Fateme Zare, Patrick M. Reed, Sondoss Elsawah, Michael Ryan, Brett A. Bryan Selection of the smallest subset of informative scenarios for the robust optimization of off-grid hybrid energy systems Federico Giudici, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Castelletti, Holger R. Maier From risk assessment to adaptation pathways: improvement of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis for the Limari basin in Chile Chris Luger, Ad Jeuken, Koen Verbist, Andrew Warren, Christopher Vivanco, Hector Maureira, Pablo Álvarez Parallel session – Fostering connections between resilience thinking and DMDU approaches for achieving long-term sustainability (Room I-J) Chair: Benjamin Bryant, Jan Kuiper Embracing theoretical and methodological pluralism in resilience thinking and DMDU Wei Liu Building bridges: Lessons from resilience planning and applied RDM analysis in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Jordan Fischbach Resilience as an analytical uncertainty Patrick Steinmann, George van Voorn Uncertainty and multifunctionality as bridging concepts from socio-ecological resilience to infrastructure finance in water resource decision making Anita Lazurko (remote) Toward Supply chain resilience: consequence-based risk analysis using exploratory modeling Bahareh Zohoori, Jan Kwakkel, Alexander Verbraeck |
| 15:00 – 15:30 | Coffee |
| 15:30 – 16:30 | Parallel session – Embracing uncertainty in regional energy planning and management (Room I-J) Chair: Cornelia Colijn, Mark Alan Hughes, Oscar Serpell Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Developing multi-scale internally consistent scenarios for Canada’s energy futures Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, Vanessa Schweizer Participatory multi-modelling under deep uncertainty for robust energy infrastructure development strategy Igor Nikolic, Jan Kwakkel, Eefje Cuppen, Jaco Quist Using DMDU Methods to Evaluate the Robustness of Costa Rica’s National Decarbonization Plan David Groves, Edmundo Molina, Luis Fernando Victor Gallardo, Guido Godinez Zamora, Jairo Quiros Tortos, Felipe De Leon, Valentina Saavedra Gómez, Adrien Vogt-Schilb Parallel session – Ex-post evaluation of deep uncertainty in infrastructure design (Room G) Chair: Marc Neumann Do we understand performance dependencies, trade-offs, information value, and robustness in dam design and operation? Federica Bertoni, Andrea Castelletti, Matteo Giuliani, Patrick M Reed Quantifying the feedbacks between flood infrastructure and geomorphological processes in an uncertain deltaic environment: A case study of the coastal zone of Bangladesh Amelia Paszkowski, Jim Hall How high to elevate a house to manage deeply uncertain flood risks? Mahkameh Zarekarizi, Klaus Keller Parallel session – The deep uncertainties of legislative processes (Room A) Chair: Nidhi Kalra, Steven Popper, Robert Lempert Can Congress Contemplate Deep Uncertainty? Nidhi Kalra The Road to Zero: DMDU Concepts in Support of Legislative Coalition Building Steven Popper Can Credible Commitment to Long-Term Policy Goals Be Accomplished? Detlef Sprinz |
| 16:30 – 17:30 | Closing Plenary (Room A) Keynote speech: Paul Davis Closing remarks from the DMDU Society’s Board |
| 17:30 – 18:30 | Closing Reception |