Guivarch C., Lempert R., Trutnevyte E. Scenario techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: an overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty. Editorial of the Thematic Issue. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 97, 201-210. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217303936 Scenario techniques are a teeming field in energy…
A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions (2018)
Moallemi, E. A., & Malekpour, S. (2018). A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions. Energy Research and Social Science, 35(February 2017), 205–216. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.022 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961730350X Energy transitions are complex transformation processes, which involve different actors and unfold in a deeply uncertain future. These features make the long-term…
What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock (2018)
Pot, W.D., Dewulf, A., Biesbroek, G.R., Van der Vlist, M., Termeer C.J.A.M. (2018) What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.031 Abstract Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future…
Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty (2018)
Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes….
Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management (2018)
Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two state-of-the-art decision support methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we…
Rival Framings: A Framework for Discovering How Problem Formulation Uncertainties Shape Risk Management Tradeoffs in Water Resources Systems
Quinn, J., Reed, P.M., Giuliani, M., and Castelletti, A., “Rival Framings: A Framework for Discovering How Problem Formulation Uncertainties Shape Risk Management Tradeoffs in Water Resources Systems.”, Water Resources Research, v53, DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020524, 2017. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017WR020524/full Managing water resources systems requires coordinated operation of system infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of…
Adaptation pathways in planning for uncertain climate change: Applications in Portugal, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands 2017
Mark Zandvoort, Inês S. Campos, André Vizinho, Gil Penha-Lopes, Eliška Krkoška Lorencová, Rutger van der Brugge, Maarten J. van der Vlist, Adri van den Brink, Ad B.M. Jeuken, Adaptation pathways in planning for uncertain climate change: Applications in Portugal, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume…
Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation (2017)
Stephens, S.A.; Bell, R.G.: Lawrence, J. (2017). Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5(3): 40; doi:10.3390/jmse5030040 http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/3/40 Abstract: Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high…
A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans (2017)
Tariq, A., Lempert, R.J., Riverson, J. et al., “A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans,” Climatic Change (2017) 144: 625. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2062-5 A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans 2017 Abstract Climate change can significantly affect water quality, in addition contributing non-stationarity and deep uncertainty…
Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis (2017)
Yakov Ben-Haim, Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis, Proceedings of the Royal Society, A. 5 April 2017 http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/473/2200/20160890 Abstract: Theories, models, and computations underlie reasoned argumentation in many areas. The possibility of error in these arguments, though of low probability, may be highly significant when…