The Atlantic Council and Penn State’s College of Engineering invite you to a workshop event on Strategic Foresight, Deep Uncertainty and Leadership. The event includes an evening conversation with reception and a three-days workshop. Socioengineering Systems Innovation: Forces of Disruption and Leadership, an evening conversation and reception will be held…
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios (2018)
Lamontagne, J., Reed, P. M., Link, R., Calvin, K., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J., “Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios.”, Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000701, (2018). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000701/full An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result…
Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research: An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty (2017)
Guivarch C., Lempert R., Trutnevyte E. Scenario techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: an overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty. Editorial of the Thematic Issue. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 97, 201-210. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815217303936 Scenario techniques are a teeming field in energy…
A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions (2018)
Moallemi, E. A., & Malekpour, S. (2018). A participatory exploratory modelling approach for long-term planning in energy transitions. Energy Research and Social Science, 35(February 2017), 205–216. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.10.022 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221462961730350X Energy transitions are complex transformation processes, which involve different actors and unfold in a deeply uncertain future. These features make the long-term…
What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock (2018)
Pot, W.D., Dewulf, A., Biesbroek, G.R., Van der Vlist, M., Termeer C.J.A.M. (2018) What makes long-term investment decisions forward looking: A framework applied to the case of Amsterdam’s new sea lock. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.01.031 Abstract Long-term investments challenge decision makers to look into the far future. Existing future…
Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty (2018)
Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes….
Save the Date – Annual Meeting 2018
We are pleased to announce details of the DMDU Society’s 2018 Annual Meeting, which will be held 13 through 15 November, 2018 – please save the date! This year’s meeting will be held in Southern California and will be hosted jointly by the RAND Corporation and the local government…
Describing adaptation tipping points in coastal flood risk management (2018)
Assessing changing coastal flood risk becomes increasingly uncertain across multi-decadal timeframes. This uncertainty is a fundamental complexity faced in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Robust decision making (RDM) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) are two state-of-the-art decision support methods that are useful in such situations. In this study we…
Seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair
We are soliciting suggestions and seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair. Our DMDU Society is governed by an eight-member, volunteer leadership team elected by its membership. The leadership team’s Funding and Career Development position is currently vacant. According to our Rules and Processes, the leadership team…
New Zealand guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change has now DMDU methods as its core
On 15 December the New Zealand Government issued revised national Guidance on Coastal Hazards and Climate Change for decision makers which has DMDU methods at its core. Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning is used to address uncertainties around hazards and sea-level rise beyond mid-century when the uncertainty bands widen. The framework of…