Shortridge, J., Guikema, S. & Zaitchik, B. (2017) Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change. Climatic Change 140: 323. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1845-4 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1845-4 Abstract: In the face of deeply uncertain climate change projections, robust decision frameworks are becoming a popular tool…
Testing the Scenario Hypothesis (2017)
Gong, Min , Robert Lempert, Andrew M Parker, Lauren A. Mayer, Jordan Fischbach, Matthew Sisco, Zhamin Mao, David H. Krantz, and Howard Kunreuther. “Testing the Scenario Hypothesis: An Experimental Comparison of Scenarios and Forecasts for Decision Support in a Complex Decision Environment.” Environmental Modeling and Software 91 (2017): 135-55. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216305060…
Why pay attention to paths in the practice of environmental modelling? (2017)
Lahtinen, T. J., J. H. A. Guillaume, and R. P. Hämäläinen (2017), Why pay attention to paths in the practice of environmental modelling?, Environmental Modelling and Software, 92, 74–81, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.019 Taking the ‘path perspective’ helps to understand and improve the practice of environmental modelling and decision making. A path is…
Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting (2017)
Derbyshire, J. and Giovannetti, E. (2017) Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting, Technological Forecasting & Social Change: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302980 In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty…
Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change (2017)
Almeida, S., Holcombe, E. A., Pianosi, F. and Wagener, T. (2017). Dealing with deep uncertainties in landslide modelling for disaster risk reduction under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 225-241, doi:10.5194/nhess-17-225-2017. http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/225/2017/ Landslides have large negative economic and societal impacts, including loss of life and damage to infrastructure….
Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London (2017)
Kingsborough, Jenkins & Hall, Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in London, Climate Risk Management, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.01.001 The risk of residential overheating and mortality is increasing due to the effects of global warming and the urban heat island effect and needs to be addressed through climate…
Preparing for disruptions: A diagnostic strategic planning intervention for sustainable development (2017)
Malekpour, S., Brown, R. R., de Haan, F. J., & Wong, T. H. F. (2017). Preparing for disruptions: A diagnostic strategic planning intervention for sustainable development. Cities, 63, 58–69. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.12.016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275116301299 Despite the emphasis on sustainable development in some of the contemporary planning and policy rhetoric, we face an implementation…
First Annual Training Day on DMDU methods
by: Steven Popper The Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty held its first annual training day event on 15 November 2016 at World Bank Headquarters in Washington, DC. This was the day prior to the start of the DMDU Society’s annual two-day workshop. The Society’s leadership team has decided…
Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?
by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft), Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….
Deep Uncertainty and the Long-Term: Time, the policy challenge and enablers for policy persistence
by Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert At the conclusion of the DMDU workshop at Deltares, The Netherlands in 2015, we identified political scientists as an additional group that could inform the discussions at the next annual workshop. Accordingly, we designed a problem session at the annual workshop at the World…