Bhave, A. G., Conway, D., Dessai, S., & Stainforth, D. A. (2016). Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world. Climate Risk Management, 14, 1-10. URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096316300626 Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often…
A critical review of decision support systems for water treatment: Making the case for incorporating climate change and climate extremes (2016)
Raseman, WJ; Kasprzyk, JR; Rosario-Ortiz, FL; Stewart, JR; Livneh, B “A critical review of decision support systems for water treatment: Making the case for incorporating climate change and climate extremes” Environmental Science: Water Research and Technology, In Press. doi:/10.1039/C6EW00121A Abstract: Water treatment plants (WTPs) are tasked with providing safe potable water…
Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways (2016)
Zeff, H.B., Herman, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways.”, Water Resources Research, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR018771. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016WR018771/abstract A considerable fraction of urban water supply capacity serves primarily as a hedge against drought. Water utilities can reduce their dependence…
Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments (2016)
Herman, J., Zeff, H., Lamontagne, J., Reed, P.M., and Characklis, G., “Synthetic Drought Scenario Generation to Support Bottom-Up Water Supply Vulnerability Assessments.”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, v142, no. 11, 2016. http://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29WR.1943-5452.0000701 Robustness analyses of water supply systems have moved toward exploratory simulation to discover scenarios in which…
Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (2016)
Manheim, David, Margaret Chamberlin, Osonde Osoba, Raffaele Vardavas and Melinda Moore. Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers’ Needs. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1576.html. This report describes decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, that are relevant to infectious…
What are the topics of this year’s annual meeting? A word cloud
by Marjolijn Haasnoot, Laura Bonzanigo Tomorrow we will start our 4th annual meeting of the Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. Like last year we made word cloud of the titles of the presentation, abstract and posters. As expected ‘uncertainty’ is one of the most frequent words this year. However,…
Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty (2016)
Jan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker (2016) Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, Environmental Modelling & Software 86 (2016) 168-183, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017 A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this…
Programme for the 2016 annual workshop is now available!
The World Bank will host the 2016 DMDU workshop in Washington DC, on November 16 and 17, 2016, with a training on DMDU methodologies scheduled for November 15th, 2016. There is still place for the training, but it is running out fast. Please confirm here by October 15 if you have not done…
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…
Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015004949 Internally-consistent scenarios are increasingly used in social–ecological systems modelling to explore how a complex system might be influenced by deeply uncertain future conditions such as climate, population, and demand and supply of resources and energy. The presence of deep uncertainty requires model diagnostic techniques such as global sensitivity analysis…