by Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, The 8th International Congress on Environmental Modeling and Software in Toulouse, France, on July 10-14, 2016, featured a track titled Advancing in Environmental Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Emerging Tools and Challenges. The track was co-organized by Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology), Patrick…
Survey on DMDU Education & Training
We would like to get your feedback about your interest in and availability of DMDU education and training opportunities. Please fill in this short questionnaire On behalf of the Society let me thank you for your generosity with your time and willingness to participate. Steven W. Popper Chair, Education and Training
Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning (2016)
Derbyshire, J. (2016) Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning, Technological Forecasting & Social Change (in press), June 2016, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516300671 Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future,…
Annual Workshop
Registration for our annual workshop in Washington DC (November 16-17) is now closed. This year’s workshop is organized around two key elements. First, the workshop will include 6 “problem-solving” sessions during which we will have group discussions around practical problems our Society members face in their work, and possible solutions. These will…
Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation (2016)
Derbyshire, G. Wright, Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation, International Journal of Forecasting (in press), May 2016, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.004 This paper shows that, in practice, the standard approach to scenario planning, known as ‘intuitive logics’, is overly focused on uncovering causes of one…
EPSRC Decision Making Under Uncertainty – London Meeting
EPSRC, ESRC, AHRC and NERC are leading on behalf of all research councils a workshop which aims to initiate the building of a cross cutting multidisciplinary community focussed on decision making under uncertainty. The workshop will involve presentations by a number of key speakers in this area and will provide…
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? (2016)
H.R. Maier, J.H.A. Guillaume, H. van Delden, G.A. Riddell, M. Haasnoot, J.H. Kwakkel, An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?, Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 81, July 2016, Pages 154-164, ISSN 1364-8152, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014 A highly uncertain future due to changes in climate,…
Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning (2016)
Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio, Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty, An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning, Santa Monica, Calif,: RAND Corporation, RR-1112-OSD, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html Today’s defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to…
The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies
Derbyshire, J. (2016) The implications, challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies, Futures 77, 45-55. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715300136 Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science…
The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology (2016)
Bradfield, R., Derbyshire, J. & Wright, G. (2016) The Critical Role of History in Scenario Thinking: Augmenting Causal Analysis within the Intuitive Logics Scenario Development Methodology. Futures 77, 56-66. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001632871530046X The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether…