Full citation: Jafino, B.A., Hallegatte, S. & Rozenberg, J. Focusing on differences across scenarios could lead to bad adaptation policy advice. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2021). URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01030-9 Abstract: As development and adaptation are closely intertwined, assessing the benefits of adaptation by focusing only on how it reduces climate impacts could lead to…
Bonjean Stanton, M.C., Roelich, K., 2021. Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 171, 120939. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120939 AbstractDeep uncertainties like environmental and socio-economic changes create challenges to decision making. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methods are recognised approaches to…
van ‘t Klooster, S.A. & Veenman, S.A. (2021). Shaping future perspectives in policy advice under deep, long-term uncertainty. The case of the Dutch Delta Committee. Futures, vol. 127. https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1cWGW3jdJdMQU Since society is facing some major transformations, it is essential to understand how long-term perspectives in an uncertain context are shaped…
CITATION: Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. & Bryan, B. A. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty. Global Environ. Change 102186, 102186, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 (2020). ABSTRACT: Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in…
Paul K. Davis and Steven W. Popper (2019), “Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand,” Journal of Policy and Complex Systems, 2(5), 181-201. https://view.joomag.com/journal-on-policy-complex-systems-volume-5-number-2-fall-2019/0729098001579703740/p182?short= Abstract: Good policy analysis needs to improve in routinely addressing not only uncertainty about model inputs to the model used,…
Robert Lempert, James Syme, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, Garett Ballard-Rosa, Kacey Lizon, Ifeanyi Edochie. Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making (2020) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1727766 Problem, research strategy, and findings: Prediction-based approaches, the heart of current transportation planning practice, are inadequate…
Jonathan D. Herman Julianne D. Quinn Scott Steinschneider Matteo Giuliani Sarah Fletcher. Climate adaptation as a control problem: Review and perspectives on dynamic water resources planning under uncertainty. Water Resources Management (2020) https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025502 Abstract Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or…
Janzwood, S. Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x <https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02746-x#citeas> Abstract The uncertainty language framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is designed to encourage the consistent characterization and communication of uncertainty between chapters, working groups,…
Shirin Malekpour, Warren E. Walker, Fjalar J. de Haan, Niki Frantzeskaki, Vincent A.W.J. Marchau, Bridging Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) and Transition Management (TM) to improve strategic planning for sustainable development, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 107, 2020, Pages 158-167. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901120302008 Sustainable development is a long-term endeavour involving deep…
The School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds invites applications for a postdoctoral research fellow in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty You will participate in a six-year EPSRC-funded research project, Multi-Actor Adaptive Decision Making (MAADM). MAADM aims to understand how to make better decisions to transform infrastructure…