CITATION: Moallemi, E. A., Kwakkel, J., de Haan, F. & Bryan, B. A. Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty. Global Environ. Change 102186, 102186, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102186 (2020). ABSTRACT: Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in…
The Resilience of Inter-basin Transfers to Severe Droughts With Changing Spatial Characteristics (2020)
Murgatroyd, A., & Hall, J. W. (2020). The resilience of inter-basin transfers to severe droughts with changing spatial characteristics. Frontiers in Environmental Science, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.571647 Abstract:Faced with the prospect of climate change and growing demands for water, water resources managers are increasingly examining the potential for inter-basin water transfers to alleviate…
Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks (2020)
Zarekarizi, M., Srikrishnan, V. & Keller, K. Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks. Nat Commun 11, 5361 (2020). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19188-9 AbstractHomeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)…
The Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak, the risk of institutional failures and a coherent health policy
Marcello Basili & Antonio Nicita, 2020. “The Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak, the risk of institutional failures and a coherent health policy,” Department of Economics University of Siena 838, Department of Economics, University of Siena. Abstract The new coronavirus CoVid-19 (SARS-Cov-2) pandemic outbreak all around theWorld puts in evidence how institutional failures may end…
Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch‐German Rhine (2020)
Ciullo, A., Kwakkel, J.H., De Bruijn, K.M., Doorn, N. and Klijn, F. (2020), Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch‐German Rhine. Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.13527 Abstract:Flood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision‐support frameworks which rely on cost‐benefit analyses….
Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions (2020)
Yufei Su, Jordan D. Kern, Patrick M. Reed, Gregory W. Characklis, Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions, Applied Energy, Volume 276, 2020https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115541 Abstract: Hydrometeorological conditions influence the operations of bulk electric power systems and wholesale markets for electricity. Streamflow is the…
Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering (2020)
Patrick Steinmann, Willem L. Auping, Jan H. Kwakkel, Behavior-based scenario discovery using time series clustering, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 156, 2020https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120052 Abstract: Scenario Discovery is a widely used method in model-based decision support for identifying common input space properties across ensembles of exploratory model runs. For model runs…
Critical Airport Infrastructure Disaster Resilience: A Framework and Simulation Model for Rapid Adaptation (2020)
Comes, T., Warnier, M., Feil, W., Van de Walle, B., 2020. Critical Airport Infrastructure Disaster Resilience: A Framework and Simulation Model for Rapid Adaptation. Journal of Management in Engineering 36, 04020059. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000798 Abstract: Resilient critical airport infrastructures affected by a disaster need to sustain minimal functionality and quickly resume full…
Can modern multi-objective evolutionary algorithms discover high-dimensional financial risk portfolio tradeoffs for snow-dominated water-energy systems? (2020)
Rohini S. Gupta, Andrew L. Hamilton, Patrick M. Reed, Gregory W. Characklis, Can modern multi-objective evolutionary algorithms discover high-dimensional financial risk portfolio tradeoffs for snow-dominated water-energy systems?, Advances in Water Resources, Volume 145, 2020https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103718 Abstract: Hydropower generation in the Hetch Hetchy Power System is strongly tied to snowmelt dynamics in…
Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties (2020)
Taebi, B, Kwakkel, JH, Kermisch, C. Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties. WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e666.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.666 Abstract:Governing risks is not only a technical matter, but also a matter of ethical and societal considerations. In this article, we argue that in addition to scientific and technical uncertainties, we need to also address normative…