Climate Change Requires Long-Term Action. How Can Policymakers Deal with Uncertainty When Planning Far Ahead?

By Ichiro Sato, World Resources Institute The Paris Agreement invites countries to integrate sustainability and climate action into their broader economic and social policies by creating “mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” (LTS) by 2020. Only 10 countries have submitted their strategies to date, with one of the…

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Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)

Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…

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DMDU Society 2018 Elections Results

The elections for the leadership of The Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty for the term 2019-2020 have been held and the votes have been counted.  There were 105 ballots cast and the following leaders have been elected: President Rob Lempert Vice-President Jan Kwakkel Communications and Outreach Pedro Nascimento…

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DMDU Society 2018 Election

You will find below a link to the ballot for the 2018 election process, including the upcoming leadership team and minor changes in our rules and processes. Please follow the instructions provided on the e-mail sent to you to cast your vote.  https://goo.gl/forms/WmAQph3BCB0DT66n2  

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Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change

Haasnoot, M., van ’t Klooster, S. & van Alphen, J. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 52, 273–285 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003 Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring…

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Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (2018)

Eker S & Kwakkel JH (2018). Including robustness considerations in the search phase of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making. Environmental Modelling & Software 105: 201-216. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.03.029. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making (MORDM) is a prominent model-based approach for dealing with deep uncertainty. MORDM has four phases: a systems analytical problem formulation, a search phase to generate candidate solutions, a trade-off analysis where different strategies…

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Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios: Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector (2017)

Eker S, van Daalen E, & Thissen W (2017). Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios: Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector. Futures 93: 27-43. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2017.08.002. Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on…

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