http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…
Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015004949 Internally-consistent scenarios are increasingly used in social–ecological systems modelling to explore how a complex system might be influenced by deeply uncertain future conditions such as climate, population, and demand and supply of resources and energy. The presence of deep uncertainty requires model diagnostic techniques such as global sensitivity analysis…
Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)
Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…
Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)
Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…
The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)
Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016. The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…
Embracing Uncertainty for Better Decision-Making
by Laura Tuck and Julie Rozenberg, Sustainable Development Practice Group, World Bank Group We all face uncertainties. What if the train’s late? What if it rains? What if traffic is bad? What if there’s a shift in government before the project starts? Every day we’re hit by all the “what ifs”…
A Matlab toolbox for designing Multi-Objective Optimal Operations of water reservoir systems
M. Giuliani, , Y. Li, A. Cominola, S. Denaro, E. Mason, A. Castelletti. Water reservoir operations have great potential for contributing positively to the development of different socio-economic sectors as well as for reducing the vulnerabilities of water systems caused by changing hydroclimatic and anthropogenic forcing. This motivates the search…
Robust discrimination between uncertain management alternatives by iterative reflection on crossover point scenarios: Principles, design and implementations (2016)
Guillaume JHA, Arshad M, Jakeman AJ, Jalava M, Kummu M (2016) Robust Discrimination between Uncertain Management Alternatives by Iterative Reflection on Crossover Point Scenarios: Principles, Design and Implementations. Environmental Modelling & Software 83: 326–43. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.005 When comparing environmental management alternatives, there is a need to assess the effect of uncertainty…
Rules and Processes of the Society
The Leadership Team has drafted and discussed the Rules and Processes document for the Society. The document forms the basis of the operations of the Society and describes, amongst others, membership procedures, the responsibilities and duties of the Leadership Team and the election process. The procedure for adoption of the…
Report from Session B5 on “Managing Uncertainty” at the 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
by Joseph Guillaume At the iEMSs2016 conference in Toulouse, the session on Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (see blog report) was accompanied by a more generic one on “Managing Uncertainty”, organised by Joseph Guillaume (Aalto University), Tony Jakeman (Australian National University), Holger Maier (The University of Adelaide), Jiri Nossent (Flanders…