Please find below the available materials from our 2018 Annual Meeting. The complete meeting program is available here.

13 November 2018 – Training Day

08:00 Check-in for Registrants
09:00 Introduction to DMDU and of the plan for the day
Interactive exercise on deep uncertainty in practice
10:30 Generalised framework for understanding DMDU methods
11:30 Lunch
13:15 DMDU Ideas Fair: demos of tools, methods and applications
Rapidly-Deployable Decision Support for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
David Groves
The Exploratory Modeling Workbench: An Open Source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (many objective) robust decision making
Jan H. Kwakkel
15:45 Break
16:00 Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: A Tentative Taxonomy of Approaches
Jan H. Kwakkel
16:30 Plenary panel and Q&A: DMDU in practice

14 November 2018 – Workshop Day 1

08:00 Registration and Breakfast
09:00 Welcome and Introduction
Survey of the DMDU field and this meeting
Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, DMDU Society; Steven Popper, Chair, Annual Meeting Organizing Committee
I. DMDU Methods in Application
09:15 Keynote Speaker: Dr. Alejandro Pioré
Dean, National School of Social Sciences and Government, Monterrey Institute of Technology (“Tec”); former Minister of the Interior, Government of Mexico
09:30 Plenary: Cities as complex systems faced with deep uncertainty
Chair: Gerdo Aquino
MEGA-ADAPT: Simulating socio-hydrological and climatic risks in Mexico City through a self-organizing systems approach
Luis A Bojorquez-Tapia, Marco A Janssen, Hallie Eakin, Andrés Baeza, Fidel Serrano-Candela, Paola Gómez-Priego and Yosune Miquelajauregui         
DMDU in spatial adaptation: embracing vagueness to enable emergence of linkage opportunities
Berry Gersonius, Sadie McEvoy, Ellen Kelder and Richard Ashley
Climate resilient management of urban stormwater systems: a pilot study in Pittsburgh
Jordan R. Fischbach, Kyle Siler-Evans, Devin Tierney, Michael T. Wilson, Lauren M. Cook and Linnea Warren May
10:30 Breakout 1A: DMDU approaches to the issues of megacities
Chair: Berry Gersonius
Mitigating the increasing risks of urban flooding in central Shanghai: options and analysis
Tian Zhan, Laixiang Sun, Hengzhi Hu
Chinese policy-making process to promote low carbon technologies: A potential case for applying Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways
Huan Zou
Nature-based solutions for flooding risk management under climate change and an urban circular economy in creation: The case of Shenzhen New Marine City
Laixiang Sun, Zhan Tian, Junguo Liu, and Dean Ye
Breakout 1B: DMDU-informed urban planning and development
Chair: Warren Walker
Using DMDU to prepare for energy transition in the Philadelphia region
Cornelia Colijn, Mark Alan Hughes and Oscar Serpell (presenter)
Land use and transportation planning under deep uncertainty
Kacey Lizon, Robert Lempert, Garett Ballard-Rosa, George Mazur, Debra Knopman, James Symes and Ifeanyi Edochie
Adapting land use and water management plans to a changing climate in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, Florida
David Groves, Debra Knopman, Neil Berg, James Syme, Craig Bond and Robert Lempert
Breakout 1C: DMDU and infrastructure planning
Chair: Julie Rozenberg
Conflicts in coalitions: A stability analysis of robust multi-city regional water supply portfolios
David Gold, Bernardo Trindade, Patrick Reed and Greg Characklis
Delivering on the Sustainable Development goals through long-term infrastructure planning
Daniel Adshead, Scott Thacker, Lena Fuldauer and Jim Hall
Emerging applications of adaptation pathways for managing and reducing climate change vulnerability in Californian energy utilities
Robert Kay, Judsen Bruzgul, Tommy Hendrickson, Maya Bruguera and Cole Wheeler
Resilience of complex infrastructure systems under deep uncertainty: an analysis of Mexico’s fuel transportation and storage infrastructure
Edmundo Molina-Perez, Giovanni Hernandez, Fabian Carranza, Steven Popper and Luis Serra.
12:00 Lunch and networking activity; Poster session
13:15 Breakout 2A: Water resource applications colloquium
Chair: Jordan Fischbach
Water resource planning under future climate and socioeconomic uncertainty in the Cauvery River basin in Karnataka, India
Ajay Bhave, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai and David Stainforth
Multi-objective analysis of funding allocations for non-structural flood risk mitigation in coastal Louisiana
David Johnson, Zach Richardson, Simon Gomez Sierra and Matthew Shisler
Modelling dynamics and adaptation at operational and structural scales for the ex-ante economic evaluation of large dams in Africa
Luciano Raso, Jean-Claude Bader and Bruno Barbier
Malawi’s vulnerability to threshold behavior of lake Malawi: informing adaptation decision making under uncertainty
Ajay Bhave, Lauren Bulcock, Suraje Dessai, Graham Jewitt and Declan Conway
Optimized dam portfolios reduce impacts of sediment trapping on the Mekong Delta under deeply uncertain future sediment yields
Rafael Schmitt, Matteo Giuliani, Simone Bizzi, G. Mathias Kondolf and Andrea F. Castelletti
San Francisco Water: piloting adaptation pathways for long-term water supply planning
Dana Stuparu, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Willem van Deursen and Alexis Dufour
Uncertainty and evidence-based water policy management in South Africa: the challenge for evaluation
Sandile Ngcamphalala, Olivier Crespo and Johann Louw
Developing a robust water strategy for Monterey, Mexico: diversification and adaptation for coping with climate, economic and technological uncertainties
Edmundo Molina Perez, David Groves, Steven Popper, Rodrigo Crespo and Aldo Ramirez
Breakout 2B: DMDU approaches to technology assessment and planning
Chair: Edmundo Molina Perez
Strategic decision making in the 3D printing industry – a Robust Decision Making (RDM) analysis
Pedro Nascimento de Lima, Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Morandi and Daniel Pacheco Lacerda
Understanding the need for policy action on greenhouse gas removal to address climate change: initial case for Robust Decision Making
Mark Workman, James Maltby and Geoff Darch
Lithium-based transportation system-of-systems: Complexity and uncertainty of socio-environmental impacts
Datu Buyung Agusdinata and Wenjuan Liu
DMDU in a modern risk society: Roles of resilience-based public policy and emerging technologies/AI
Mika Shimizu
Breakout 2C: DMDU Ecosystems planning
Chair: Ashley Hefner
Dealing with deep uncertainty through exploratory modeling: regulating loggerhead sea turtle fishing by catch in Gulf of Ulloa, Mexico
Daniela Pedroza, Luis Bojorquez-Tapia, Germán Ponce-Díaz, Francisco Arreguín and Antonio Diaz-De-Leon
Avoiding fisheries collapse: Can robustness frameworks capture and navigate uncertain harvest trade-offs?
Antonia Hadjimichael, Patrick Reed and Julianne Quinn
Socio-ecological resilience modeling: Policy implications of drought effects in the wildlife management system in Baja California Sur, Mexico
Hilda Zamora-Maldonado, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Víctor Sánchez-Sotomayor and Raymond Lee
Considering uncertainty in multi-objective spatial prioritization for California’s agriculture, biodiversity and water resources
Benjamin Bryant
14:45 Break
II. DMDU Methodologies and Tools
15:15 Keynote Speaker: Dr. John Seely Brown
Former chief scientist of Xerox Corporation and director of Xerox’s Palo Alto Research Center (PARC); Current independent co-chairman of the Deloitte Center for the Edge
15:30 The role of monitoring, signposts and triggers in DMDU colloquium
Chairs: Judy Lawrence and Robert Lempert
This session will include four ten-minute talks on research papers, followed by a panel discussion lead by practitioners.
Climate-induced tipping points: a typology and application of DMDU toolkit
Kees C.H. van Ginkel and Marjolijn Haasnoot
Designing a monitoring system to get signals for adaptation
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Susan van ‘T Klooster, Dirk Eilander, Ferdinand Diermanse and Pieter Bloemen
Identifying Triggers for Metropolitan Water District Adaptive Management Plan
Dave Groves and Brandon Goshi
Monitoring of dynamic adaptive policies: Design of a monitoring system by scenario discovery
Luciano Raso, Jan Kwakkel and Jos Timmermans
Panel Chair: Robert Lempert

  • Judy Lawrence – Co-author of Guidance for Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand
  • Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, Denver, CO
  • Brandon Goshi– Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
  • Pieter Bloemen – Staff of the Delta Programme Commissioner, Netherlands
17:00 End of Day 1
18:00 Reception and Dinner hosted by Sony Pictures Studios
Keynote Speaker: Hon. Thomas A. Small, Mayor of Culver City

15 November 2018 – Workshop Day 2

08:00 Registration and Breakfast
08:30 Breakout 3A: Explorations of system resiliency
Chair: Costa Samaras
Accelerated sea-level rise: a game changer for decision making under uncertainty?
Marjolijn Haasnoot, Jaap Kwadijk and Jos van Alphen
NZ coastal adaptation guidance: Interweaving uncertainty through sea level rise scenarios and hazard/risk assessments
Rob Bell, Scott Stephens and Judy Lawrence
How dynamic adaptive policies shape climate change mitigation trade-offs under uncertainty
Giacomo Marangoni, Jonathan Lamontagne, Julianne Quinn, Patrick Reed, Massimo Tavoni and Klaus Keller
Operationalizing resilience under deep uncertainty: Water supply for Mexico City and the Valley of Mexico
Sarah Freeman, Casey Brown and Diego Rodriguez
Breakout 3B: Using DMDU methods to illuminate economic issues
Chair: Steven Popper
Assessing the prospects for public revenues from oil in Latin American and Caribbean countries under emerging climate policy
Baltzar Solano-Rodriguez, Steve Pye and Adrien Vogt-Schilb
Harmonizing Discretionary Policy Choice with Fiscal Rule Making: Mexico after Fiscal and Energy Sector Reforms
Eduardo Márquez Peña
How much is needed? Infrastructure investments for sustainable development
Julie Rozenberg, Marianne Fay and Claire Nicolas
Breakout 3C: Innovation in DMDU methods
Chair: Julianne Quinn
Participatory, simulation-driven scenario analysis for long-term decision-making
Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Jing Du and Arika Ligmann-Zielinska
A generalized many-objective optimization approach for scenario discovery
Jan Kwakkel
SPIRE – A decision support system for addressing complex/chaotic environments
Harold Klein
10:00 Break
10:15 Breakout 4A: New tools for DMDU analysis colloquium
Chair: Jan Kwakkel
Policy trees and threshold-based adaptation of water resources systems under climate change
Jonathan Herman
WaterPaths: A platform for discovering robust urban water portfolio investment pathways
Bernardo Trindade, Patrick Reed, Harrison Zeff and Gregory Characklis
An interdependent infrastructure systems planning tool to support strategic long-term, national-scale DMDU
Lena Isabel Fuldauer, Scott Thacker, Daniel Adshead and Jim Hall
Travel Model Improvement Program: exploratory modeling and analysis tool
Martin Milkovits and Sarah Sun
A new free web-based tool to support decision making under uncertainty
Niels Riegels, Oluf Jessen, Silvia Leirao and Henrik Madsen* Colloquium will follow a three-part format:
Breakout 4B: Panel — The good, the bad, and the wicked: DMDU techniques in practice
Chair: Laurna Kaatz
• Alexis Dufour – San Francisco Public Utility Commission
• Brandon Goshi – Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
• Laurna Kaatz – Denver Water, Denver, CO
Breakout 4C: Accounting for perspectives and behavior in DMDU
Chair: James Dewar
Experts’ decision-making model under deep uncertainty
Matylda Gerber
Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation
Ajay Bhave, Suraje Dessai, Cathryn Birch, Declan Conway, Luis Garcia-Carreras, John Paul Gosling, Neha Mittal and David Stainforth
Strategic Foresight, Deep Uncertainty, and Leadership: A Workshop Report
Darryl Farber, Mathew Burrows and Martin Pietrucha
11:45 Lunch and posters
III. ‘Mainstreaming’ DMDU Methods & Analyses in Policy Settings
13:00 DMDU analyses and their relevance to policy decision makers
Chair: Angela O’Mahony
Panel discussion among DMDU analysts in the realms of national security, defense, and geopolitics
14:00 Breakout 5A: New approaches to DMDU decision support
Chair: Marjolijn Haasnoot
Hidden-model processes for adaptive management under climate change uncertainty
Kelly Klima, Milad Memarzadeh and Matteo Pozzi
Applying methods of DMDU to social-behavioral modeling for policy analysis
Paul Davis
The tail wagging the dog: Designing modelling tools to drive better decision processes
Charlotte Brown, Garry McDonald, Erica Seville, Michele Daly, Nicola Smith and Rob Buxton
Towards incorporating inclusiveness in model-based support for long-term adaptation planning under uncertainty
Bramka Arga Jafino and Jan Kwakkel
Breakout 5B: Panel — DMDU guidance documents: Turning methods into practice
Chair: Julie Rozenberg
This session will consist of a brief introduction followed by several “speed talks” on how guidance addresses deep uncertainty and what it takes to mainstream these concepts. The audience will then form breakout groups to draft questions for panelists (20 minutes) followed by panel discussion of the questions.
Introduction to the session
Robert Lempert
Sea Level Rise Guidance, New Zealand
Judy Lawrence
Hydropower Sector Climate Resilient Guidelines
Patrick Ray
California Climate Safe Infrastructure Working Group
Juliette Hart
Collaborative Risk Informed Decision Analysis guidelines
John Kucharski
Infrastructure Resilience Committee, American Society of Civil Engineers
Costa Samaras
15:30 DMDU implementation problem solving session: bring your problems for general discussion
Chair: Judy Lawrence
The session will begin with a brief framing on DMDU implementation with sharing of lessons. It will be followed with the format outlined below.
Attendees are invited to place problems in DMDU implementation or stakeholder engagement on a designated board during the course of the meeting.  1) Several will be selected for speed-talks. 2) These will be followed by breakout roundtable discussions for each presented problem. 3) Following the roundtables, gather for plenary reports and discussion.
17:00 Closing Plenary and DMDU Society Business Meeting
2018 DMDU Elections, 2019 DMDU Annual Meeting
Rob Lempert and Jan Kwakkel, DMDU Society; Steven Popper, Chair, Annual Meeting Organizing Committee