By Adrien Vogt-Schilb The ongoing wildfires and hurricane seasons in Central and North America remind us that containing the climate crisis is as urgent as ever. So while the priority is to put an end to the health crisis, a critical question is how governments can best support a sustainable…
Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? (2020)
Kwakkel, JH. Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision‐making? WIREs Clim Change. 2020; 11:e638. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.638 Abstract:Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in…
2020 DMDU Webinar Series
In this nine-episode webinar series, the Tecnologico de Monterrey hosts researchers sharing their expertise in DMDU methods, tools, and applications ranging from city planning and decarbonization to poverty reduction and autonomous vehicles. The final webinar of the series explores deep uncertainty in the context of COVID19. Recordings of these sessions…
Decision under Normative Uncertainty (2018)
Franz Dietrich, Brian Jabarian. Decision Under Normative Uncertainty. PSE Working Paper n°2018-46. 2018. <halshs-01877769> Abstract: How should we evaluate options when we are uncertain about the correct standard of evaluation, for instance due to conflicting normative intuitions? Such `normative’ uncertainty differs from ordinary `empirical’ uncertainty about an unknown state, and…
Seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair
We are soliciting suggestions and seeking volunteers for our Society’s Funding and Career Development chair. Our DMDU Society is governed by an eight-member, volunteer leadership team elected by its membership. The leadership team’s Funding and Career Development position is currently vacant. According to our Rules and Processes, the leadership team…
2017 Membership Survey
You will find below our 2017 membership survey. Please, answer these questions, as your answers will help us to shape our next actions. The survey will be opened for answers until Oct 20th. Click on this link to answer the survey on a separate page.
Uncertainty at AGU
Several sessions at AGU 2017 conference will adress (hydrologic) uncertainty. An overview is given here: http://aguhu.blogspot.nl/2017/07/which-session-to-submit-to-hydrologic.html DMDU draws on a range of approaches to deal with uncertainty. Methods for living with (deep) uncertainty is a key focus, but not all aspects of a situation are deeply uncertain. Even if we…
Deadline for abstracts extended
The deadline for submitting abstracts for this years annual meeting is extended to 9th of June. To register or submit an abstract, please go to the conference website.
Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?
by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft), Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…