Bridging the False Divide: Are We Ignoring the Role of Adaptive Operations for Improving the Efficiency, Resilience and Robustness of Planned Infrastructure?

by: Patrick Reed This blog reports on one of the session of the annual meeting of 2016. The sessoin was organized by Patrick Reed (Cornell University), Jan Kwakkel (TU Delft),  Andrea Castelletti (Politecnico di Milano), Laura Bonzanigo (World Bank). Invited speakers were Julie Quinn (Cornell University) and Marc Jaxa-Rozen (TU Delft)….

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Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis (2016)

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521530092X Highlights •We performed global sensitivity analyses of a land use model under deep uncertainty. •Deep uncertainty was characterised by internally consistent global change scenarios. •The influence of scenarios on output uncertainty and parameter sensitivity was significant. •Sensitivity indicators robust to deep uncertainty were calculated using four decision criteria. •Our…

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Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise (2016)

Buchanan, M. K., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M., & Tebaldi, C. (2015). Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise.Climatic Change, 1-16. URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7 Abstract: Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However,…

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Adaptation pathways in practice: mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources (2016)

Kingsborough, A., Borgomeo, E. and Hall, J. (2016) Adaptation pathways in practice: Mapping options and trade-offs for London’s water resources. Sustainable Cities and Society.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.08.013 London’s ability to remain a world-leading city in an increasingly globalised economy is dependent on it being an efficient, low-risk place to do business and a…

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The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database (2016)

Guivarch, Céline, Julie Rozenberg, and Vanessa Schweizer. 2016.  The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database. Environmental Modelling & Software 80, p 336-353. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216300706 The new scenario framework developed by the climate change research community rests on the fundamental logic that…

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Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale (2015)

Girard, C., Pulido-Velazquez, M., Rinaudo, J.-D., Page, C., and Caballero, Y., 2015, Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale, Global Environmental Change 34,132-146 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.002   The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a…

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Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning (2016)

Lempert, Robert J., Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk and Kate Giglio. Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty: An Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1112.html. Also available in print form. Robust decision making stress-tests plans over a wide…

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Unprecedented drought and decision-making (2015)

Borgomeo, E., G. Pflug, J. W. Hall, and S. Hochrainer-Stigler (2015), Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit, Water Resour. Res., 51, 8927–8948, doi:10.1002/2015WR017324.   Global climate models suggest an increase in evapotranspiration, changing storm tracks, and moisture delivery in…

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Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise (2015)

Michael Smithson and Yakov Ben-Haim, 2015, Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise, Risk Analysis,  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12397/pdf Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of…

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