Please find below the available materials from our 2017 Annual Meeting. The complete meeting program is here.

13 November – Training Day

09:30 DMDU and overview of the day
Who are we? stand-up introduction exercise
10:00 Interactive exercise:
What is deep uncertainty and what does it mean in practice?
11:00 Break
11:15 Generalised framework for DMDU methods:
A guide for the rest of the day
12:15 Lunch
13:15 Introductory demonstrations and applications
Experiences with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways – Marjolijn Haasnoot
15:45 Break
16:00 Substantive overview:
Decision-making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice (Springer Verlag, forthcoming)
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty – A tentative taxonomy of approaches
– Jan Kwakkel
16:30 Plenary panel and Q&A
What is in the DMDU analyst’s tool kit?

14 November – Workshop Day 1

09:30 Welcome & introduction
Prof Jim Hall, University of Oxford
Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology
09:40 Global scale keynote address:
Informing policy decision-making with Foresight methodologies
Claire Craig, Director of Science Policy, Royal Society
10:10 Panel discussion including:
Jerry Ravetz, Associate Fellow, James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford
Angela Wilkinson, Senior Director, Scenarios & Insights, World Energy Council
Klaus Keller, Professor of Geosciences, Penn State University
Warren Walker, Professor of Policy Analysis, Delft University of Technology
Bridging the Gap Between the Futures Field and Policymaking – Warren E. Walker
An Arithmetical Language for Deep Uncertainty – Jerome Ravetz
10:40 Coffee
11:10 Problem-solving parallel interactive sessions
National defence & security
Jim Maltby, Defence & Security Analysis Division, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL)
Water, floods and coastal adaptation
Judy Lawrence, Senior Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington
Water, floods and coastal adaptation – Practical application of DMDU methodologies – Pieter Bloemen, Jos van Alphen, Marjolijn Haasnoot
Community Based Decision-Making for Climate Change Adaptation in Hawke’s Bay – Stephen Daysh, Graeme Hansen
Long-range Integrated Planning at Denver Water – Laurna Kaatz
Resilient South Florida: Challenges in addressing Deep Uncertainty – Jayantha Obeysekera
A New, Collaborative Approach to Water Stewardship under Deep Uncertainty
Steve Moncaster, Geoff Darch
12:30 Lunch and posters
14:00 Perspectives from national and regional scales:
Long-term planning in Small Islands Developing States under a changing climate
Julie Rozenberg, Economist, World Bank Sustainable Development Group
Integrated systems method – identification of policy options for a complex wicked problem
Leena Ilmola Sheppard, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Futures
Committee of the Finnish Parliament
15:00 Break
15:30 Problem-solving interactive session
Tempus Fugit: Time as a driver of uncertainty – Tina Comes, Bartel Van de Walle
16:30 Tools and models demonstration showcase
E-rise – Ivan Haigh, University of Southampton
Pumping Station Simulation & Testing (PSST) model – Jos Timmermans, Delft University of Technology
Designing a signal system for timely adaptation – Marjolijn Haasnoot, Deltares
Criticality and vulnerability assessment of the multi-modal transport network of Bangladesh – Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology
Project Platypus – A Collection of Libraries for Optimization, Data Analysis and Decision making – Julianne Quinn, Cornell University
NISMOD-INT Platform – Scott Thacker, United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)
17:45 Close of workshop day 1

15 November – Workshop Day 2

09:30 City-scale keynote address
Engineering options analysis for infrastructure decision-making
Richard de Neufville, Prof of Engineering Systems, MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
10:00 Panel discussion including:
Felix Creutzig, Head, Land Use, Infrastructures & Transport, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
Alex Harvey, Climate and Environment Adviser, UK Department for International Development (DFID), Africa Regional Department
Alex Nickson, Thames Water
Tim Reeder, Independent consultant, formerly of the UK’s Environment Agency
10:20 Problem-solving interactive session
Adaptation by Design – a pathways approach for urban planning and spatial design
Sadie McEvoy, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology
Taneha Kuzniecow-Bacchin, Delft University of Technology
11:20 Coffee
11:40 Parallel sessions
Global and regional scales
A large ensemble framework for consequence driven discovery of climate change scenarios
Jonathan Lamontagne, Tufts University
Uncertainty in epidemiological models of the Ebola epidemic
Scott Janzwood, University of Waterloo
Local Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty
Mark Hughes, University of Pensylvania
Managing uncertainty in water availability
Henry Leveson-Gower, DefraNational and city scales
Local interpretation of the shared socioeconomic pathways
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan, University of Waterloo. Talk given by Vanessa Schweizer
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100: A challenge in meeting the uncertainties of long-term planning
Giasuddin Choudhury, BDP2100 Bangladesh
Certain to deeply uncertain: a decision-making teaser
Judy Lawrence, Victoria University of Wellington
Local and individual scales
Configurational conditions that enable public sector organizations to take forward-looking decisions: An fs QCA analysis of municipal investment decisions in the Netherlands
Pot Wieke, University of Wageningen
Forest management under deep uncertainty – decision support vs. decision-making
Roderich von Detten, University of Freiburg
Minimising information needs: how does decision-making under deep uncertainty do it?
Joseph Guillaume, Aalto University
Does robust decision-making mirror thinking under uncertainty: how social science may help us understand the validity of DMDU approaches?
Jim Maltby, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
13:20 Lunch and posters
There are two venues for lunch and posters, the Oxford Martin School and nearby Hertford College
14:45 Feedback from parallel sessions
15:15 Insights from the cutting edge of DMDU
Role of scenarios in decision support under deep uncertainty: psychological evidence and anthropological possibilities
Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy & the Future Human Condition and Sara Turner, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Transcending uncertainty
Gwythian Prins, London School of Economics
Morality, uncertainty and policy
Yakov ben Haim, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technion
16:45 Reflections on workshop and plans for 2018
Robert Lempert, Director, RAND Corporation & Jan Kwakkel, Delft University of Technology
17:15 Workshop close